The shambolic Democratic primary race has been a blessing for President Trump, who has lampooned the bickersome debates and castigated frontrunner Bernie Sanders as a crazy socialist.
But Trump should be getting nervous. Several things are beginning to work against his reelection odds. Here are three:
Joe Biden’s resurgence. Biden’s convincing win in the South Carolina primary on Feb. 29 didn’t put him in the lead, and he will probably end the primaries with fewer delegates than Sanders. But Biden has shown enough life to remain competitive to the end. This means the moderate Biden could have a strong case for the Democratic nomination if nobody wins a majority of delegates and party insiders determine the nominee at the Democratic convention in July.
The split between Sanders on the left and several more moderate candidates has fragmented the vote so severely that data site fivethirtyeight estimates there’s a 65% chance no candidate wins the majority of delegates needed to clinch the nomination outright. The withdrawal of Pete Buttigieg, Tom Steyer and Amy Klobuchar could marginally help Biden, but he’s probably too far behind Sanders already to reach a majority. The Super Tuesday contests on March 3, when about one-third of all delegates are up for grabs, could clarify the picture. But forecasters expect a split verdict—with Biden and Sanders each winning some states—that will leave the race a muddle.
Trump would obviously prefer to run against Sanders rather than Biden. Mainstream Democrats know this, and think Sanders would lose badly and also possibly give Republicans full control of Congress. The gaffe-prone Biden isn’t a shoo-in to beat Trump, but he has broad appeal and could win over Independents and moderate Republicans who would never vote for Sanders. There’s good reason Trump sought an edge over Biden last year by urging a bogus investigation of him in Ukraine, which ultimately led to Trump’s impeachment. Biden could take him down.
A coronavirus recession. The U.S. economy isn’t contracting yet, and it could well survive the coronavirus epidemic that has caused an abrupt correction in global stock markets. But this also seems to be the most serious economic danger of the Trump presidency, with businesses canceling events everywhere and consumer confidence beginning to drop. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says the global economy “faces its biggest danger since the [2008] financial crisis.” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told Yahoo Finance he sees “even odds” of a U.S. recession. “It’s not Trump-friendly,” he said.
Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, to stimulate the economy. But Zandi and others point out that with rates already historically low, there may not be a lot the Fed can do. “Further monetary stimulus by itself may not be enough to generate a sustained recovery in risky assets,” Capital Economics wrote to clients on March 2.
One problem for Trump is that U.S. economic growth was only around 2% before the onset of the coronavirus. His tariffs and protectionist trade policy have cut into growth and created new vulnerabilities. Trump is historically unpopular, and a solid economy is the only reason some voters support him. If he loses that, his favorability will almost surely drop from the 40s into the 30s and maybe even into the 20s, dooming his reelection odds.
The ACA lawsuit. The Supreme Court said on March 2 it will hear a case about the future of the Obama-era Affordable Care Act, which will determine if the law lives or dies. The Trump administration has sided with a group of Republican-led states arguing that the whole law should be invalidated, because Congress in 2017 repealed the penalty for violating the individual mandate requiring all Americans to have insurance. The legal argument is convoluted, but the bottom line is Trump is on record asking the courts to kill the entire ACA.
That means he would repeal the prohibition on the once-hated practice of insurance companies denying coverage or charging more for preexisting conditions. The ACA forbids that, something most Americans support. Trump is going to have some explaining to do this fall as the Democratic nominee, whoever it is, blasts Trump for threatening the health coverage of 80 million Americans with preexisting conditions.
Trump claims to be “the person who saved Pre-Existing Conditions in your healthcare.” This is an outright lie. Republicans have said they’d pass a new law to restore this provision if the ACA is repealed, but those proposals have loopholes the ACA doesn’t have. Killing the ACA would also eliminate health care coverage for around 20 million Americans who get insurance through one of the ACA’s mechanisms. This is not a winning political stance for Trump.
If there’s good news for Trump, it’s that the Supreme Court won’t hear this case till next fall, meaning there won’t be a decision until 2021. So Trump won’t have to answer for the actual death of the ACA before the November elections. But Democrats will hammer this theme all the same, especially since health care is a top voter concern. Trump has given his opponent a gift, perhaps expecting his Democratic foe to bungle it. In this instance, Trump may be the bungler.
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. Confidential tip line: [email protected]. Encrypted communication available. Click here to get Rick’s stories by email.
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