7 Contrarian Plays That Wall Street Is Ignoring: July 2024
With the recent stock market pullback, you may be taking a look at potential bargains among widely-followed stocks. However, instead of “buying the dip” in what’s popular, you may want to take a look at the deep value opportunities among contrarian stocks instead.
While the market has become highly concentrated in the “Magnificent Seven” and other mega-cap stocks, Wall Street and Main Street investors alike have been ignoring many smaller, less glamorous stocks for quite some time.
As a result, many of them have reached a point where their discounted valuations more than account-for risks and uncertainties. With this, they have become potential asymmetric wagers, or stocks where upside potential vastly exceeds downside risk.
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That’s not to say that each of the following seven contrarian stocks is going to be profitable, if you choose to go against the grain. However, if possible catalysts play out, or unanticipated greater market attention, these stocks could rack up considerable gains relative to their respective current prices.
AMC Networks (AMCX)
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AMC Networks (NASDAQ:AMCX) is a media company, primarily in cable television but with some exposure to the streaming space. Besides its eponymous AMC cable network and streaming service, the company owns specialty streaming services like Acorn, as well as cable networks like IFC and We TV.
For years, investors have avoided AMCX stock in droves. Streaming exposure notwithstanding, the decline of linear television has outweighed streaming growth. This has resulted in a considerable drop in net income since 2018. That year, AMC generated net earnings of $446.2 million. Over the past twelve months, earnings have totaled just $157.7 million. However, with shares trading for just 2 times estimated 2025 earnings, shares in this melting ice cube have perhaps reached the point where they’ve become oversold.
Yes, there are some dilution concerns, due to a recent $125 million convertible debt offering. Still, if the company’s operating performance begins to stabilize, even a move to a mid to high single-digit forward valuation would mean a substantial move higher for shares. Outside of improved fundamentals, AMCX is also a possible short-squeeze target, if another wave of “meme stock mania” takes shape. Short interest currently comes in at 54% of outstanding float.
Bumble (BMBL)
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Recently, I highlighted Bumble (NASDAQ:BMBL) as being one of the most undervalued stocks that have recently hit a new 52-week low. Tech and interest stocks may be popular and widely-followed, but online dating stocks have truly become an out of favor category. BMBL, for instance, trades for just 10.5 times forward earnings.
However, even Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH), which owns Hinge, OkCupid and Tinder, all key competitors to Bumble’s eponymous online dating app, trades at a similar valuation. Hence, it’s tough to make the argument that Bumble is relatively cheaper than comparable names. Having said that, it’s possible that sentiment for BMBL stock could improve, even if the market stays lukewarm about MTCH. How exactly could Bumble rekindle bullishness among investors?
Bumble has continued to tumble, despite reporting solid growth back in May. This indicates that the market remains convinced less impressive numbers are just around the corner. Yet if the company releases similarly-strong results when it next reports earnings on Aug. 7, this could mark the start of a sustained recovery, with further reporting of growth helping to propel BMBL back to prior price levels.
Avis Budget Group (CAR)
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Avis Budget Group (NASDAQ:CAR) is one of several major names in the rent-a-car industry. Given the cyclical, highly-leveraged nature of the business, you can say that Wall Street has a love-hate relationship with such names.
When interest rates are low and travel demand is high, CAR stock and its peers perform well. With economic challenges and uncertainty arise, the market drops such names like a hot potato. So far this year, the latter situation has been playing out. Sure, the travel economy may remain strong, but high interest rates and a weak used car market have raised concerns about Avis Budget Group’s near-term prospects.
That said, however, the company so far has yet to fall into the same sort of dire spiral as longtime competitor Hertz Global (NASDAQ:HTZ). If Avis Budget can ride out the current downturn, until factors like an anticipated lowering of interest rates help to drive improved fiscal performance. The heavily-discounted CAR currently trading for just 8.6 times forward earnings, and could leap back to much higher prices. With this, consider it one of the contrarian stocks to buy, whether now or on further weakness.
CVS Health (CVS)
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One can point to several company-specific factors to explain why CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) shares steadily stumbled to lower prices. But the fact that pharmacy stocks have fallen out of favor is undoubtedly been a factor as well. That’s clear, from the even poorer performance of CVS’s main publicly-traded peer, Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA).
However, don’t be fooled by WBA stock which is far cheaper at 4 times forward earnings, and may at first seem like the better of these two contrarian stocks. If you want to fade market pessimism, choose CVS stock, trading for 8.4 times forward earnings, instead. As InvestorPlace’s Will Ashworth recently argued, drugstore retail is ancient history. That’s bad news for Walgreens, which is closing a substantial number of its stores, and has had mixed results with its efforts to become a more diversified health services provider.
On the other hand, CVS is already a diversified health services provider. Besides its pharmacy chain, the company is a major player in benefits management, health care services, and health insurance. While CVS is also closing stores, as Seeking Alpha commentator Daniel Sch?nberger argued earlier this month, Walgreens’ widespread closures may help CVS gain additional market share.
Helen of Troy (HELE)
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Household appliance and food storage products company Helen of Troy (NASDAQ:HELE) recently became one of the contrarian stocks. On July 9, shares fell by more than 30%, on the heels of a quarterly earnings release that included worse-than-expected results and downward revisions to guidance. Yes, it may seem that the HELE stock sell-off was justified.
Then again, maybe not. Rather, this may be another situation where the market has overreacted. In turn, opening the door for bottom-fishers to buy in at a very favorable price. At current prices, shares sell for just 7 times estimated earnings for the fiscal year ending February 2026. On the surface, this makes sense, given the worsening fiscal performance. However, as InvestorPlace’s Tyrik Torres recently argued, cooling inflation could be a major catalyst for HELE stock over the next year.
As inflation simmers down, reducing the squeeze this macro headwind has placed on consumers, Helen of Troy may be well-positioned to report better-than-expected results a few quarters from now. If this happens, chances are that the market will re-rate HELE back to a higher valuation. For most of the past decade, this stock has traded at a valuation between 15 and 20 times earnings.
Jack in the Box (JACK)
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Jack in the Box (NASDAQ:JACK), which besides its famed burger chain also owns the Del Taco fast food chain, is one of many restaurant stocks that has continued to fall out of favor so far this year. However, more recently, shares have been bouncing back. In large part, due to investors realizing the value opportunity at hand with restaurant stocks.
At current prices, JACK stock trades for only 9.1 times forward earnings. This represents a substantial discount to other fast food stocks. Admittedly, there is a substantive reason why the market had been willing to bid down shares to rock-bottom prices. Back in May, I discussed how Jack in the Box, with its high exposure to California, left it more vulnerable to the impact of a state-mandated fast food minimum wage on store profitability.
Still, much as I argued before, at current prices this factor is likely baked well-baked into JACK’s valuation. The market is seemingly coming to this conclusion as well. That’s not to say that this stock is soon going to be trading for more than 20 times earnings, on par with larger fast food stocks, but a further re-rating may be in store.
Lithium Americas (Argentina) (LAAC)
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Since 2023, lithium stocks have gone from “hot stocks” to contrarian stocks. Lithium Americas (Argentina) (NYSE:LAAC) is no exception. Shares in this company, which spun off its U.S. lithium assets as Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC) last October, have during this time tumbled from $6 to $3 per share.
But while LAAC stock and similar names are out of favor for now, don’t assume this will remain the case permanently. Yes, spot lithium prices have fallen. A slowdown in EV sales growth suggests another lithium boom may take a while to take shape. Even so, there may be a path for enthusiasm to return for LAAC sooner rather than later. As LAAC noted in its latest investor presentation, production at the company’s Cauchari-Olaroz mine is ramping up.
Expected to be cash flow positive this year, increased production and stabilization of lithium prices could translate into a big earnings growth bonanza. Sell-side consensus calls for Lithium Americas (Argentina) to report earnings of 51 cents per share in 2025. Not too shabby for a $3 stock. Meeting, or even beating, these estimates, could drive a fast trip back to LAAC’s post-spinoff price.
On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.
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