After August and September markets surprise expect October to buck its trend too: Najarian

0

September is historically the worst month of the year for the stock market. Yet again that statistical fact has lost you money if you bet on it. This has been a year of surprises, not the least of which being the almost complete inability of exogenous shocks to the system to trigger any market volatility.

It’s been a slow, grinding almost uninterrupted move higher for much of the year. There’s a dark Irish toast to the effect of “may we live in interesting times.” If you trade volatility from the long-side that toast is more of a prayer at this point.

Bonds sold off as traders read the Fed's new interest rate forecasts as slightly more aggressive, but dovish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the central bank's statement drove stocks higher. The Fed retained two key pieces of language in its statement, released after its meeting Wednesday.
Bonds sold off as traders read the Fed's new interest rate forecasts as slightly more aggressive, but dovish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the central bank's statement drove stocks higher. The Fed retained two key pieces of language in its statement, released after its meeting Wednesday.

In the attached clip Jon Najarian of OptionMonster says the Fed is going to do what it can to keep things that way, starting with last week’s non-move on interest rates. “Ms. Yellen was not going to rattle the markets ahead of the Scottish vote (on independence),” Najarian says. “That’s why she kept ‘considerable period of time’ in the statement.”

With the Fed’s course seemingly set in stone and most of the big events like Alibaba’s (BABA) IPO and the iPhone release behind us, Najarian says most of the gains are probably in the tape for the year. After presciently calling for a 9% gain in 2014 at the beginning of the year Najarian says we’re in for a healthy pause.

“S&P 500 (^GSPC) by the end of next year perhaps but I don’t think it’s in the cards for this year.”

This being the last week of the quarter there could be some volatility in the cards. By trading tradition October is the choppiest of months. Given what we’ve seen so far in 2014 the it’s possible the stock market may manage not to move at all the entire month.

More from Yahoo Finance:
Alibaba IPO will be a Wall Street ‘feeding frenzy’: Pro
Home Depot hack hits 56M, Concur surging, JetBlue gets new captain
Larry Ellison leaves lasting impact on Silicon Valley

Advertisement