Algoma Steel Group (NASDAQ:ASTL) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 37% over the last month. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Algoma Steel Group's ROE today.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Algoma Steel Group is:
7.0% = CA$105m ÷ CA$1.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.07 in profit.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
A Side By Side comparison of Algoma Steel Group's Earnings Growth And 7.0% ROE
When you first look at it, Algoma Steel Group's ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 10% either. Although, we can see that Algoma Steel Group saw a modest net income growth of 12% over the past five years. So, the growth in the company's earnings could probably have been caused by other variables. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.
Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Algoma Steel Group's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 25% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.
past-earnings-growth
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Algoma Steel Group is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Algoma Steel Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
Algoma Steel Group's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 11% (implying that it retains 89% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.
While Algoma Steel Group has been growing its earnings, it only recently started to pay dividends which likely means that the company decided to impress new and existing shareholders with a dividend. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 22% over the next three years. However, Algoma Steel Group's future ROE is expected to rise to 11% despite the expected increase in the company's payout ratio. We infer that there could be other factors that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company's ROE.
Summary
In total, it does look like Algoma Steel Group has some positive aspects to its business. Specifically, its fairly high earnings growth number, which no doubt was backed by the company's high earnings retention. Still, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping a lot of benefit to the investors. While we won't completely dismiss the company, what we would do, is try to ascertain how risky the business is to make a more informed decision around the company. You can see the 3 risks we have identified for Algoma Steel Group by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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