As you might know, Alico, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALCO) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Statutory earnings fell substantially short of expectations, with revenues of US$18m missing forecasts by 55%. Losses exploded, with a per-share loss of US$2.07 some 1,379% below prior forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analyst is forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Alico

After the latest results, the sole analyst covering Alico are now predicting revenues of US$50.3m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 45% to US$2.89 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$80.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.19 in 2024. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

The average price target climbed 9.4% to US$35.00despite the reduced earnings forecasts, suggesting that this earnings impact could be a positive for the stock, once it passes.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alico's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Alico's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 58% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 16% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 2.9% annually. Not only are Alico's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analyst is also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alico. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.