Santos Limited (ASX:STO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.0% to AU$7.44 in the week after its latest half-yearly results. Santos reported US$2.7b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.20 beat expectations, being 2.6% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Santos

Taking into account the latest results, the 14 analysts covering Santos provided consensus estimates of US$5.51b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a small 2.2% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 5.4% to US$0.41. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.42 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$8.52, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Santos analyst has a price target of AU$12.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$7.52. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Santos' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.4% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.0% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Santos is expected to lag the wider industry.