Apparel Prices Rose in August as Inflation Holds Steady
The annual inflation rate is at its lowest level since February 2021.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday. Helping to keep overall inflation steady was a decline in gasoline prices by 0.6 percent and a decrease in electricity pricing by 0.7 percent. On an unadjusted basis over the last 12 months, consumer prices rose 2.5 percent.
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Apparel prices rose 0.3 percent in August, after declining 0.4 percent in July.
The CPI is a broad measure of goods and services that’s used to keep tabs on inflation. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.3 percent, slightly above the 0.2 percent estimate.
That small uptick sets the stage for a one-quarter percent reduction in interest rates when the Federal Reserve holds its FMOC meeting on Tuesday, concluded Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. But even with the odds more in favor of a one-quarter percent reduction, the economists said they wouldn’t be shocked if the FMOC elected to reduce rates by a one-half percent.
“The ongoing deterioration in the labor market has become an increasing focus for the FOMC, and inflation is slowly but surely returning to 2 percent on trend,” the economists said in a report, adding that “all signs point to additional rate cuts beyond next week, in our view.”
The BLS data last week showed that the retail trade sector lost 11,100 jobs in August. Overall, U.S. employers added 142,000 jobs in August, just below the consensus estimate of an increase of 162,000 jobs. The unemployment rate in Guust slipped to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent in the prior month.
With more rate cuts on the way, that could help businesses lower their borrowing costs. Consumers could benefit as well, as lower interest payments on credit card bills and variable rate mortgages would free up some dollars to help with discretionary spending, such as apparel purchases.
Inflationary pressures post-COVID have had a significant impact on consumer spending, with projected higher costs from existing trade policy and tariffs as well as overall U.S. fiscal policy have become talking points as presidential candidates Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump head to their stumping grounds to garner votes for November’s election.