Auto Trader's latest market analysis forecasts a positive trajectory for the UK used car market in 2024, with sales expected to rise by 5% year-on-year (YoY) to around 7.6 million transactions.

This growth is predicted despite significant shifts in supply dynamics that are challenging retailers to adapt to a changing vehicle parc and forecourt landscape.

In the first half (H1) of the year, despite a 16% drop in the supply of one to five-year-old vehicles, used car sales saw an approximate 5% YoY increase.

This surge was driven by strong consumer demand, which peaked in June with the largest rise on Auto Trader in 15 months.

The following month continued the trend with a 4% YoY increase.

Auto Trader also reported an average of 84.4 million monthly visits, a 9% YoY rise, and a faster sales pace, with cars selling five days quicker than in July 2023.

Consumer confidence reached its highest level since November 2021 in June, supported by a stable economic backdrop and easing inflation.

The latest analysis, which shows YoY growth of 5%, predicts the market is on track to achieve an additional 350,000 used car sales this year.

However, the supply of sub-five-year-old cars is expected to hit a low by the end of 2024, the lowest since 1995, exacerbating current supply complexities.

The pandemic's impact on new car production has resulted in a 28% decrease in younger cars in the parc compared to 2019.

The decline in available vehicles has not been uniform across all manufacturers, with some brands maintaining / resuming production quickly during factory disruptions while others, already experiencing declining sales, were hit harder by the pandemic.

According to Auto Trader, retailers are now facing the challenge of sourcing older vehicles and increased competition for stock.

The proportion of five to ten-year-old cars on franchise retailers' forecourts has risen from 13% in 2019 to 22% today, and for supermarkets, the increase is from about 10% to nearly a third.

Auto Trader estimates that by the end of this year, electric vehicles (EVs) will make up 4% of the cars on the road, with this figure expected to rise to over a third by 2033.

By 2028, 33% of all sub-five-year-old used cars in the parc will be electric, up from around 15% by the end of 2024.

Auto Trader strategy and insights head Marc Palmer said: “2024 has had its challenges, but overall, it’s performed well, and based on the current trajectory our outlook for the rest of the year remains positive.

"However, the heavily nuanced market retailers have had to manage over the last few years is only set to intensify, as the combination of supply constraints, more electric cars, and a changing brand landscape mean the parc will soon look very different. With such a dramatic change in forecourt dynamics, sourcing, pricing and selling cars are going to require a blend of both instincts and insights to navigate the market ahead.”

"Auto Trader predicts 5% rise in UK used car sales in 2024" was originally created and published by Motor Finance Online, a GlobalData owned brand.

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