On the Beach Group plc (LON:OTB) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last quarter. But don't envy holders -- looking back over 5 years the returns have been really bad. In fact, the share price has declined rather badly, down some 60% in that time. So we're not so sure if the recent bounce should be celebrated. We'd err towards caution given the long term under-performance.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

Check out our latest analysis for On the Beach Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

On the Beach Group became profitable within the last five years. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

The modest 1.2% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. Revenue is actually up 15% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for On the Beach Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that On the Beach Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 56% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 10% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand On the Beach Group better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for On the Beach Group that you should be aware of.