Bet On It: Diamond Sports and FanDuel reach naming rights agreement

TipRanks

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 1:05 PM 10 min read

SECTOR NEWS: Diamond Sports Group and FanDuel (FLUT) announced an agreement on a broad, long-term commercial partnership, including: exclusive right to name Diamond’s 16 regional sports networks and Diamond’s digital offerings, including the direct to consumer product, as FanDuel Sports Network; linear and digital media placement and integration opportunities across all live NBA, NHL and MLB games on FanDuel Sports Network; shared commitment to explore a unified DTC app experience with the ability to syndicate FanDuel TV programming across FanDuel Sports Network, including studio programming like “Up & Adams,” “Run It Back” and FanDuel TV’s live rights programming; FanDuel to have reseller designation for Diamond’s DTC product; and additional economic and equity elements. David Preschlack, CEO of Diamond, stated: “Collaborating with FanDuel provides a tremendous pathway for Diamond to elevate the fan experience and deepen the incremental value we provide for our team, league and distribution partners. This partnership reinforces opportunities to further strengthen the close connection our RSNs have with local fans, including enhancing our DTC offering for a growing digital audience. In the meantime, having finalized agreements with the NBA, NHL and our key distributors, we remain focused on moving our business forward and driving value for our team partners and our stakeholders.”

FuboTV (FUBO) and The Athletic announced an in-depth partnership making Fubo the official live TV streaming partner of The Athletic. The multi-year agreement incorporates content and product integrations as well as plans to co-market the two brands to their respective audiences. Fubo will be integrated into live game blogs and additional content on The Athletic’s leading sports platform as a go-to sports streaming destination. As part of this, The Athletic will work with Fubo to provide the most engaging and informative content experience possible through custom in-content modules that will feature relevant game information. The Athletic and Fubo plan to jointly develop new product features on The Athletic platform designed to ultimately build a unique and market-leading user experience. “The Athletic is one of the most trusted sources in sports media and we have a shared passion of building community through sports at local and national levels,” said Yale Wang, executive vice president of marketing, Fubo. “We are excited to be The Athletic’s first official streaming partner and look forward to connecting with sports fans through bold new integrations while providing leading sports coverage.”

SPORTSBOOKS GET CRUSHED IN WEEK 6: Macquarie estimated an NFL market hold of 4% for the week of October 7-13, which suggests an overall sports betting market hold of 6%. Factors like no major moneyline upsets, high-scoring games, and 10 out of 15 public favorites covering the spread negatively impacted hold. For the week of October 7-13, the firm projected a total sports betting market hold of 6%, assuming 4% from NFL and 9% from other sports. In New York, online sports betting reported an 11% hold for the week of September 30 to October 6. ESPN Bet (PENN), now live in New York, posted a weekly handle of $9.1M and gross gaming revenue, or GGR, of $1.1M with a 12.6% hold rate. Management at G2E highlighted that New York is not a key investment market due to its 51% tax rate. Based on New York data, we estimate a third-quarter online sports betting market hold of 10%. Macquarie continues to favor the online gaming sector because it remains the only major gaming sector not dependent on the broader economy for its double-digit growth, and it has consistently surpassed market expectations over the last two years. This is underscored by Flutter’s recent announcement at its investor day, where it increased its 2030 total addressable market expectations to $70B from $40B previously. Additionally, from the firm’s discussions with operators, it appears that tier-2/3 operators are benefiting from improved technology, such as same-game parlays and prop bets, leading to higher hold rates like Caesars (CZR). Macquarie believes there is a positive risk/reward profile for companies like Penn, MGM Resorts (MGM), and Caesars, as the market seems to undervalue their online potential, despite advancements in technology and omnichannel advantages. The firm projects North America’s online GGR to grow by 33% year-over-year

GLOBAL GAMING EXPO: The firm noted that a recurring theme emerged from operators, vendors, and others at the conference known as G2E:

The Regional and Las Vegas markets remain stable, though bifurcated, with stronger performance at the high end and in rated play.
Online gaming continues to surpass expectations, especially for tier-2/3 operators who are now benefiting from improved technology, resulting in higher hold rates.
M&A activity could increase as the gap between seller and buyer expectations has started to close after a period of divergence.

Macquarie expects third-quarter fundamentals to remain stable. There is potential for sector growth in the fourth quarter as regional comparisons become easier both in terms of costs and revenues, according to the firm. Macquarie maintains a positive outlook for non-gaming sectors in Las Vegas, supported by strong group travel and events; however, tougher comparisons and potentially slowing leisure travel could present challenges, the firm told investors. Additionally, Q3 results were impacted by lower hold rates. Suppliers, particularly slot machine manufacturers, are in a solid position, the firm noted and added these companies are confident in delivering growth over the next two years. While North American unit sales declined 5% year-over-year in the first half of 2024, Macquarie expects a rebound in the second half and anticipates healthy growth into 2025. Regarding market share, the firm anticipates Everi (EVRI) to lose some share, while the “big three” manufacturers should collectively secure about 75% of sales.

STATE UPDATE: Six additional states have released their September sports betting results, all reporting an industry-wide hold exceeding 10%. North Carolina, Maryland, Maine, and Kansas saw holds above 12% for the month, driven by favorable NFL outcomes. Canaccord noted that DraftKings (DKNG) saw a 30% year-over-year increase in total handle in New York for the week ending October 6, while its gross gaming revenue surged 68% year-over-year to $21.3M, aided by an 11.7% hold.

ADDITIONAL ANALYST COMMENTARY: JPMorgan raised the firm’s price target on Flutter Entertainment to 27,700 GBp from 21,500 GBp and maintained an Overweight rating on the shares. Additionally, the firm increased its price target on Entain (GMVHF) to 960 GBp from 790 GBp and kept a Neutral rating.

Mizuho elevated the firm’s price target on DraftKings to $62 from $54 and backed an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm sees upside to DraftKings’s EBITDA guidance in the context of a market that is concerned about the company attaining the stated targets. DraftKings’ long-term earnings power is underappreciated, with greater operating leverage than is understood, the analyst told investors in a research note. Mizuho believes the market is overly focused on quarter-to-quarter variations “and potentially missing a larger, more powerful, story.” As such, it added DraftKings to its “Top Picks list.”

For Q3, Wells Fargo is most constructive on digital gaming, where it thinks fundamentals/commentary are most positive. Macau is at a crossroads, but Wells is cautious on land-based U.S. gaming. The firm made the following price target changes in a research note:

raised its price target on Wynn Resorts (WYNN) to $125 from $115 and kept an Overweight rating
cut its price target on Red Rock Resorts (RRR) to $58 from $64 and reiterated an Equal Weight rating
upped its price target on Penn to $20 from $18 and maintained an Equal Weight rating
lowered its price target on MGM Resorts to $47 from $53 and reaffirmed an Overweight rating
boosted its price target on DraftKings to $52 from $47 and backed an Overweight rating
elevated its price target on Churchill Downs (CHDN) to $168 from $161 and held an Overweight rating
increased its price target on Caesars to $58 from $56 and kept an Overweight rating
raised its price target on Boyd Gaming (BYD) to $75 from $71 and reassessed an Overweight rating

BofA hiked the firm’s price target on Caesars to $47.50 from $45 and reiterated a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm, which notes that its regional casino EBITDA estimates are in-line, cites the market re-rating on gaming operators for its increased Caesars target.

Susquehanna bumped up its price target on Las Vegas Sands (LVS) to $59 from $51. The firm adjusted its model to reflect the potential impact on the Macau market from the recent China stimulus and their now higher 2025 market industry projections, as well as assumptions for its Singapore asset MBS with its fertile areas for reinvestment and ability to generate superior returns.

JPMorgan upped the firm’s price target on Las Vegas Sands to $60 from $53 and backed an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the Q3 report. The firm is confident that in Macau, the company’s Londoner renovation disruption will meaningfully abate from here, with the newly renovated casino already now open and hotel rooms and other revenue generating inputs opening on a staggered basis in the Q4 and into 2025. This should allow for Las Vegas Sands to achieve above-Macau-peer growth in 2025, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan thinks this gives the shares enough momentum “to make this an interesting idea heading into a much better 2025 versus 2024 in Macau.”

After news emerged on Friday out of the United Kingdom, where Flutter’s stock fell nearly 9% amid speculation of increased taxes on online gaming, Benchmark said the firm views this decline as “an ideal opportunity to capitalize on the pullback” given its expectations for “a far less severe outcome” than feared. After having met with CEO Peter Jackson and IR Director Paul Tymms at G2E, the firm was “very impressed with the U.S. and broader North American secular expansion opportunities” and felt confident that the company will “continue to lead in product innovation for years to come,” added the analyst, who reiterated a Buy rating and $265 price target on Flutter shares.

BofA reinstated coverage of Flutter with a Buy rating and Street-high $300 price target and added the stock to BofA’s “Europe 1” list of top ideas. The firm says the 35% upside potential implied by its price target is premised on FanDuel’s “unique positioning and vigorous market backdrop,” which leads it to put its estimates 18% ahead of 2027 consensus. The firm also cites “large value creative opportunities,” with Brazil being the last example and what it calls “mispriced growth potential.”

BofA downgraded Melco Resorts (MLCO) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $9.20, up from $7.20. While the firm thinks the strong Macau GGR during the October Golden Week holiday and China’s more decisive economic policies have alleviated investor concerns over extreme macro risks, a consumption recovery would still likely take time, says the firm. While Melco has made strides to improve service quality and regain gross gaming revenue share, it will take time for more notable progress, the analyst added.

Wells Fargo upgraded Flutter to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $295, up from $224, implying 34% upside. Friday’s selloff reflects a “near-worst case” UK tax scenario and minimal offset, the analyst noted. With confidence FanDuel will increase structural hold to 15% in fiscal 2027, Wells said one can arrive at Flutter’s targeted fiscal 2027 revenue targets on fairly conservative assumptions.

PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES IN THE SPACE INCLUDE: Accel Entertainment (ACEL), Bally’s (BALY), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Caesars (CZR), Churchill Downs (CHDN), DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), Gambling.com (GAMB), Gan Limited (GAN), Genius Sports (GENI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts (MGM), Penn Entertainment (PENN), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Super Group (SGHC) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).