Market refuses to buckle, but leaves fewer safe hiding places

The glib experts can’t believe the numbers are holding up as well as they are given all the obvious flaws and shortcomings on traditional fundamental indicators. Won’t reality intrude and undercut these elevated readings before too long, they ask?

Yes, this describes political pundits’ view of Donald Trump’s leadership in the early presidential polls. But it also applies to many stock market observers’ take on the way the headline indexes are hanging tough despite lots of damage to traditional areas of support beneath the surface.

The S&P 500 continues to hover not far below its record high. Wednesday was the 43rd day in less than six months during which the index crossed the 2100 level.

Yet individual stocks and sectors have been brutalized. Energy, transportation and commodity stocks most glaringly. More than a fifth of the S&P 500 members have dropped more than 20% from their highs – what some have called a “stealth bear market.”

And prominent names such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Walt Disney Co. (DIS) are inflicting pain on investors who thought they were buying reliable quality.

One way to view the recent uneven action is, the market has punished those who thought they’d found a safe hiding place in expensive, brand-name stocks. This applies to Disney and its Big Media peers, to Apple and Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA), and even to the hot upstart FitBit Inc. (FIT), which delivered impressive results last night but quickly sold off after a furious stock surge into the report.

Not three weeks ago, I noted that traders were grasping for a group of “obvious” mega-cap stocks reflected in the Guggenheim Russell Top 50 Mega Cap ETF (XLG), in order to participate in a little rebound rally. In the past several days that process has been running exactly in reverse.

Get the Latest Market Data and News with the Yahoo Finance App

So where do traders seem still to be hiding now?

A scan of the new all-time high list from Wednesday among large-cap stocks shows a concentration of consumer, Internet and healthcare names, mostly. Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG), Under Armour Inc. (UA) and Nike Inc. (NKE), Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) and Whitewave Foods Co. (WWAV), Autozone Inc. (AZO) and Home Depot Inc. (HD), Priceline.com Inc. (PCLN) and Netflix Inc. (NFLX).

The message of this strength is, on one hand, reassuring, in that it supports the idea that the consumer is doing better – every one of the companies above could be patronized by the typical American in a single weekend after the paycheck hits. Yet the list also shows the relatively narrow territory stock buyers have huddled into.

It doesn’t mean the bear will come find investors in these stocks too, but it makes sense to know when a favorite stock becomes over-owned because of perceived safety.

Just as the pundits grow hoarse complaining about the damage done to cyclical stocks and the rickety underpinnings of the market, those hard-hit areas have begun to recover. The transport stocks, tracked by iShares Transportation Average (IYT) is up 5% in less than two weeks, for instance, and industrials have also bounced nicely.

The number of “selling climaxes” – defined as stocks hitting a new 52-week low and then finishing higher for the week – was nicely elevated last week, which can be a positive short-term sign that the market has absorbed a wave of urgent liquidation.

It’s fair to say the overall market has been granted ample time and cause to fall apart in recent months, given the litany of Greece, China, stalled corporate earnings and wobbly credit markets.

Yet, to the relief of the index-fund investor, it has steadfastly declined to succumb so far. It’s also a net positive that the S&P 500 has continued to rise and fall roughly in line with Treasury yields, suggesting that the equity market craves the conditions under which the Fed will lift interest rates.

None of this forgives the tape’s shortcomings or changes the fact that it’s been displaying ragged late-bull-market behavior. But it does imply the market has a good shot at avoiding a broader meltdown – a better shot, presumably, than Donald Trump has of defying the pundits all the way to the White House.

Advertisement