Boeing's (NYSE:BA) turbulent recovery efforts just hit a crucial juncture as the plane maker reached a tentative deal with 33,000 striking machinists to end a five-week work stoppage. The proposed agreement, which includes a bold 35% pay hike over the next four years, now heads to a critical union vote on October 23right as Boeing prepares to unveil its earnings. With production frozen and daily losses estimated at $50 million, the stakes couldn't be higher. If the deal is rejected, Boeing's path out of financial quicksand could be delayed, forcing it to grapple with deeper cash flow issues and mounting investor skepticism.

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CEO Kelly Ortberg, navigating one crisis after another since stepping in this August, has rolled out drastic measures, including a $25 billion refinancing package and a 10% workforce cut to keep the company afloat. The strike has not only strained relations with employees but has also put Boeing's credit rating on the edge of a downgrade to junk status. Investors have already watched the stock tumble 38% this year, weighed down by halted production, regulatory scrutiny, and lingering quality control headaches. The vote outcome is more than just a labor dispute; it's a test of Ortberg's ability to reset Boeing's fractured culture and stabilize a ship caught in turbulent financial waters.

Even if workers greenlight the agreement, the road to normalcy won't be smooth. The restart process will be gradual, with supply chain hiccups expected to stretch delays into November and beyond. The upcoming vote will be a defining moment, setting the course for Boeing's turnaround efforts while signaling to Wall Street whether the company can regain its footing or remain stuck in a cycle of setbacks. Investors should brace for a volatile ride as Boeing attempts to restore trust, streamline operations, and rebuild its reputation.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.