The big question looming over the markets after the Brexit bombshell

Source: Wikimedia Commons·Yahoo Finance

Global markets sold off sharply on Friday, as Britain’s unexpected vote to leave the European Union (EU) Thursday caused the pound to sell off to its lowest levels in 30 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell over 500 points mid-day.

Unlike some EU member countries, the UK has its own separate currency rather than the euro. It also has its own central bank, the Bank of England, removing some of the disruptive risk potential tied to the Brexit, according to JPMorgan’s Adam Crisafulli.

But there’s still a big question looming over the world markets: Will the Brexit have a ripple effect that spurs other countries to leave the EU or otherwise spurn globalization?

“Is the Exit decision a uniquely British one?” Crisafulli wrote in a note this morning. “Or does it reflect a worldwide electorate so distraught and economically frustrated that similar outcomes should be expected going forward?”

A slew of barometers to test the effect of a Brexit will come soon in the form of elections coming up across the world — including an election in Spain in just two days. Australians go to the polls on July 2, Japan on July 10, Italy in October and the US on November 8. France and Germany hold national elections next year.

More referendums on tap

Already Friday morning, politicians in several European countries called for referendums similar to the one just held in the UK. The anti-immigrant, anti-euro Front National party in France has been especially focused on breaking free from the EU.

"Victory for freedom!" said FN chief Marine Le Pen, who has been gaining support. "We now need to hold the same referendum in France and in (other) EU countries."

Meanwhile, the right-wing, anti-immigration Dutch leader Geert Wilders also praised the Brexit “leave” vote. “The Netherlands will be next,” he said. “We want to regain control over our country, our own money, our own borders, our own immigration policy.”

Italy’s anti-immigrant Northern League leader Matteo Salvini said the group will petition for a referendum on whether the country wants to exit the European Union, its leader said on Friday.

In the UK, more uncertainties still remain even after the the Brexit vote — especially given Prime Minister David Cameron’s resignation. Some analysts say calls will only grow in Scotland and Northern Ireland to leave the UK, given both regions voted strongly for “remain.” In 2014, Scotland held an independence referendum in which voters decided to remain in the UK — but that sentiment could change with this recent news.

“The principal risk going forward is the risk of copy-cat type events in the rest of the Europe,”  Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro wrote in a note to clients. “Will other nations hold referendums to exit the EU? Will Scotland vote to leave the UK? These questions cloud Europe’s outlook.”

These global considerations and the reaction by central bankers across the world largely depends on how long the shock in financial markets persists.

The bottom line:  The Brexit vote reflects rising nationalist sentiment that prevails across the world that has been, in many ways, underestimated. Former White House Chief of Staff to Bill Clinton Mack McLarty said in an interview with Yahoo Finance that  the popularity of the “leave” camp in the UK fits in with a broader aversion to globalization across the world.

“These feelings about insecurity and the future and change are … a global phenomenon,” he said. “I think it’s incumbent on our leaders, both in the government and in the private sector, to really address those needs, concerns and anxieties.”





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