Builder confidence is showing a sign of improvement as inflation gradually eases and homebuilders expect mortgage rates to stabilize in the coming months. This shift in sentiment marks a positive trend for the housing market, with builders feeling more optimistic despite ongoing affordability and higher home price challenges. Builder confidence has increased for the second consecutive month, indicating a significant shift in sentiment among builders.
HMI Indices and Price Reduction Trends
According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose to 43 in October, an increase of two points from September's reading of 41. This rise in the HMI reflects a growing optimism among U.S. homebuilders regarding market conditions and expectations for improved housing demand, even as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect many potential buyers.
In October, all three HMI indices reported improvement. The index measuring current sales conditions increased by two points to 47, while the component tracking sales expectations for the next six months experienced a notable rise of four points, bringing it to 57. The gauge measuring the traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain, reaching a level of 29.
Regional HMI scores provide valuable insights into homebuilder sentiment across different areas. The three-month moving average for the Northeast increased by two points to 51, signaling stability in that region. The Midwest also saw its score rise by two points to 41, while the South maintained a steady level at 41. The West experienced improvement as well, with a three-point increase, bringing its score to 41.
The latest HMI survey revealed that the share of homebuilders cutting home prices held steady at 32% in October, consistent with the previous month. The average price reduction returned to the long-term trend of 6%, recovering from a drop to 5% in September. Furthermore, the use of sales incentives increased slightly, rising to 62% in October from 61% in September. These trends demonstrate homebuilders' ongoing efforts to attract buyers in a challenging housing market environment.
Rising Rates Continue to Impact Homebuyers
Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed loans have fluctuated between the mid-6% and low-7% range throughout 2024. Despite the Fed's recent decision to lower its rate, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.44% this week, up from 6.32% the previous week. This increase marks the highest level since August and poses challenges for prospective homebuyers and homebuilders, as rising mortgage rates can dampen demand and affect overall market confidence.
According to NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, despite the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, many prospective home buyers remain on the sidelines, waiting for lower interest rates. Dietz forecasts uneven declines in mortgage interest rates in the coming quarters, which could improve housing demand. However, this improvement may be offset by tight lending conditions for development and construction loans, placing additional stress on building lot supplies.
Industry Outperforms Sector and S&P 500
Although mortgage rates have been inching back up, they remain 1.19% lower than last October, which may create a window of opportunity for potential homebuyers. Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of two more rate cuts in 2024, with expectations for further reductions extending into 2025. These developments are expected to provide significant support to the homebuilding market, enhancing the outlook for homebuilders as they navigate the ongoing challenges of affordability and volatile mortgage rates.
The Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry has gained 28.8% so far this year, broadly outperforming the Zacks Construction sector and the S&P 500 Index’s growth of 16.6% and 22.5%, respectively.
Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Despite challenging market conditions, select homebuilders such as Toll Brothers, Inc. TOL and KB Home KBH, Century Communities, Inc. CCS, Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. TPH, and M/I Homes, Inc. MHO are leveraging company-specific tailwinds to navigate and thrive.
Discussions on Homebuilders Mentioned Above
Here, we have discussed the above-mentioned stocks, which may not have top ranks but are worth considering on the back of impressive prospects.
Toll Brothers: This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company has been benefiting from its emphasis on affordable luxury communities, build-to-order model and land acquisition strategies. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has seen upward revisions. In the past 60 days, the estimate for the current year has increased to $14.52 from $14.03. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth rate of 17.5%. Revenue estimates also indicate a 6.3% increase year over year.
KB Home: This Zacks Rank #2 company has been showcasing the benefits reaped from the Build-to-Order business model, continued improvements in construction cycle time, and lower cancellation rates.
In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the current year has increased to $8.42 from $8.38. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth rate of 19.8%. Revenue estimates also indicate a 7.6% increase year over year.
Century Communities: This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is riding on its focus on building homes on a spec basis and affordability, along with the reduced cycle times and cost-reduction initiatives.
In the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the current year has increased to $10.72 from $10.64. The estimate indicates a year-over-year growth rate of 32.5%. Revenue estimates also indicate an 18.1% increase year over year.
Tri Pointe: This Zacks Rank #3 company has been benefiting from land acquisition strategy and cost-control measures. Also, strong demographics and limited availability of homes are likely to support the company in the future.
In the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the current year has increased to $4.68 from $4.65. The estimate indicates a year-over-year growth rate of 35.7%. Revenue estimates also indicate an 18.3% increase year over year.
M/I Homes: This Zacks Rank #3 company has been benefiting from its strategic initiatives, including its focus on affordable housing, strong land position, and operational efficiency.
In the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the current year has increased to $19.76 from $19.58. The estimate indicates a year-over-year growth rate of 21.9%. Revenue estimates also indicate a 9.6% increase year over year.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
