It's been a pretty great week for CAR Group Limited (ASX:CAR) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to AU$36.36 in the week since its latest full-year results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at AU$0.66, some 23% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at AU$1.1b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on CAR Group after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for CAR Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for CAR Group from 14 analysts is for revenues of AU$1.22b in 2025. If met, it would imply a notable 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 44% to AU$0.96. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$1.20b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.97 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at AU$36.72. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic CAR Group analyst has a price target of AU$42.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$28.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await CAR Group shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that CAR Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 23% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while CAR Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on CAR Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple CAR Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with CAR Group .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.