The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a new report that estimates the benefit payment schedule of the Social Security program, saying that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will “decline to zero” in fiscal year 2034 and the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund will do the same in 2064.

The report is based on testimony offered by Molly Dahl, CBO’s chief of long-term analysis, before the U.S. Senate budget committee.

This is generally consistent with prior forecasts, but other exhaustion timelines in recent years have floated between 2034 and 2035. CBO added that “starting in a decade, Social Security’s revenues will not be sufficient to cover all of the benefits that are due under current law,” according to the report.

Social Security payments are often a primary source of income for people in retirement who no longer collect a regular paycheck from work. Beneficiaries become eligible for benefits beginning at age 62, but these benefits are significantly lower for those who do not elect to wait until age 67 or 70.

CBO offers two prescriptions for extending the payment timeline in its forecast. One would increase the Social Security payroll tax “immediately and permanently” by 35% — from the current rate of 12.4% of taxable earnings up to 16.7%. The other would reduce benefits by 24%.

“Alternatively, Social Security’s finances could be bolstered through a combination of changes to taxes and benefits or through transfers from the general fund of the Treasury to the trust funds,” the report stated.

Uncertainty about economic and demographic trends in the country add to the broader uncertainty about long-term projections for Social Security.

“For instance, if the economy grows more quickly than CBO projects, the trust funds’ annual revenues will be greater, and the changes to taxes or spending that would be necessary to pay benefits as scheduled under current law through 2098 would be smaller,” CBO said. “If, instead, the economy grows more slowly than projected, revenues will be smaller, and the necessary changes would be larger.”

CBO projects the health of Social Security for 75 years into the future by using “a detailed microsimulation model that starts with data about individuals from a representative sample of the population and simulates demographic and economic outcomes for that sample over time,” the office explained.

Just a few months ago, the Social Security Administration (SSA)’s board of trustees predicted that the fund will last a year longer than previously predicted, running out in 2035. CBO trims that projection in its own model by one year, but attention will be required from both the House of Representatives and the Senate to get the lofty goal of substantive reform over the legislative finish line.