Coca-Cola expected to post mixed Q3 results as it grapples with deceleration of demand

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Coca-Cola (KO) is expected to see a slowdown in growth as consumers continue to be picky with their dollars.

For Wednesday morning, Wall Street expects the company to post revenue of $11.61 billion, down from $12 billion last year, alongside earnings of $0.74. The soda giant is facing ongoing pressure from consumers, prospects of less favorable commodity costs, and more challenging trends in international markets.

Rival PepsiCo (PEP) revised its 2024 sales outlook earlier this month after its North America and international sales lagged Wall Street's expectations in the third quarter.

In a phone interview with Yahoo Finance, Pepsico CEO Ramon Laguarta said consumers are "very challenged" and that they are making a "lot of trade-offs" when it comes to food. Those trade-offs are weighing on the snacks business most acutely, per Laguarta.

In a note to clients, JPMorgan analyst Andrea Teixeira wrote that consumers, especially in the US, are "more choiceful with less money in pocket," forcing Coca-Cola to raise prices to keep up growth.

"Coca-Cola is deploying its revenue growth management capabilities to offer price points both for single-serve in convenience & gas channel as well as multi-serve in larger stores," Teixeira wrote, pointing to an example of a single-serve 20 oz. can costing $2.25 to $2.69, compared to $1.99 previously.

She also said management has been comparing the cost of eating at home to dining out, especially for low- to middle-income households.

The cost of groceries increased 1.3% year over year in September, while the cost to eat out jumped 3.9%, per the Consumer Price Index. Coke's management is working with grocers to navigate the environment, per Teixeira. One effort is to "merchandise a rotisserie chicken with an affordable [2 liter] bottle, which would still represent a substantial savings compared to meals out-of-home," she said.

Given concerns from PepsiCo, UBS analyst Peter Grom expects international growth to also decelerate, particularly in markets like China, Mexico, and the Middle East, he wrote.

Coca-Cola is also dabbling in booze in a search for growth. Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Powers said he expects the company to point "some focus" on its "further exploration of the beverage alcohol market." Coke is planning a Barcardi rum and Coke cocktail launch in European markets and Mexico next year.

Year to date, shares of Coca-Cola are up more than 18%, lagging behind the S&P 500 (^GSPC)'s 22% gain, but ahead of PepsiCo's 2.5% climb.