Despite a vaccine authorization on the horizon, the U.S. is poised to still surge in cases and deaths, likely peaking in mid-January.
That’s according to the University of Washington’s Institution for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which has been providing projections based on current behaviors and factors, since the start of the pandemic.
Dr. Ali Mokdad, a professor of global health at IHME and a former senior official at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), told Yahoo Finance that only warmer weather, around the time the general population could start receiving vaccines, is when the numbers would slow.
“We expect the peak to happen mid-January and the cases to start coming down after that,” Mokdad said.
He predicted that sometime in May or June is when the U.S. could get back to normal, “if, and a big if, Americans are willing to take the vaccine.”
‘Surge upon a surge’
In its recent projections, IHME said deaths could reach as high as 770,000 by April 1.
How bad the virus has spread as a result of the surge in travel before the Thanksgiving holiday also remains to be seen.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said as much Monday.
Fauci, in a discussion during N.Y. Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s daily COVID-19 update, said the problem is that by the time the results of the spread are seen, it will be time for Hanukkah and Christmas.
“So you have a surge upon a surge, and before you can handle that, more people are going to travel over Christmas,” Fauci said.
And with family and friends gatherings, which are key points of transmission, the spread will only get worse in the 2.5 weeks following, he warned.
“We could start to see things really get bad in the middle of January. Without substantial mitigation, the middle of January could be a really dark time for us,” Fauci said.
In the meantime, Mokdad said, if 95% of Americans wear a mask, 66,000 lives can be saved between now and April 1.
More from Anjalee:
Fauci: Vaccines will only prevent symptoms, not block the virus
Biden COVID-19 adviser: Vaccine news is great, but we still have a ways to go
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