The 33rd Annual Study of Logistics and Transportation Trends was posted on Supply Chain Management Review (SCMR) on September 12. It highlighted the growing challenges facing the logistics and transportation industry as market conditions, regulations, and technological advancements evolve.
The study surveyed over 200 industry professionals, of which 85% had 15+ years of experience and 80% held senior positions. The report provides insight into spending trends, strategies, performance, and regulatory impacts.
The study noted a significant decline in private fleet spending, down to 7.23%, while intermodal transport spending reached a decade-high of 6.5%. Larger shippers (sales over $3 billion) generally align with these trends but spend less on small package and less-than-truckload (LTL) services.
All performance metrics tracked in the study saw declines from 2023, with profitability, return on assets, competitive positioning, and revenue growth all down. Customer satisfaction remained high but showed signs of strain.
Talent shortages were a critical issue, especially in mid-level management and low-wage positions. Companies struggle to offer training due to a lack of time and knowledgeable trainers, with only 39% having formal learning programs. While logistics jobs offer stability and growth opportunities, they are perceived to lag in flexibility and benefits.
Growth Despite Challenges
According to Benchmark International, the global freight and logistics market is projected to grow to $18.69 billion by 2026, with a 4.4% annual growth rate. The logistics segment alone is expected to reach $6.55 trillion by 2027, growing at 4.7% per year. The market includes services like transportation, warehousing, consultation, and packaging across several industries such as manufacturing, agriculture, and construction. Asia-Pacific leads the market share, while North America is expected to grow the fastest by 2027.
Some of the most significant drivers of growth include trade agreements, technological advancements, and globalization. Innovations such as AI, blockchain, and GPS have streamlined logistics operations. The surge in e-commerce and online shopping has also fueled demand for efficient delivery systems, especially "last-mile" services, which represent the costliest part of shipping. The rise of the gig economy, where local couriers fulfill deliveries, has helped reduce these costs.
Sustainability is becoming a focus in logistics, with green initiatives offering fuel savings and appealing to eco-conscious consumers. Furthermore, mergers and acquisitions in the trucking and maritime sectors are expected to increase in 2024, which are driven by lower interest rates and advancements in fleet management technologies.
Our Methodology
For this article, we used transportation ETFs to identify nearly 40 stocks. Next, we narrowed our list to 7 stocks with the lowest PE ratios and highest average analyst price target, as of September 20. The PE ratio of all the stocks in our list is lower than 20.
We also mentioned the hedge fund sentiment around each stock which was taken from Insider Monkey’s database of over 900 elite hedge funds. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A freight train moving through a rural landscape, its engine and numerous rail cars carrying the company's cargo.
Average Analyst Price Target Upside as of September 20: 14.51%
PE Ratio (FWD) as of September 20: 18.08
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 65
CSX Corporation (NASDAQ:CSX) is engaged in rail-based freight transportation and provides a wide range of services that are crucial to various industries. The company’s offerings include the transportation of intermodal containers, trailers, and bulk commodities, along with specialized services for chemicals, agricultural products, and minerals. With a network of about 30 terminals, the company efficiently moves manufactured consumer goods while also facilitating rail-to-truck transfers.
The company has an extensive rail network spanning approximately 20,000 route miles, which connects major population centers across 26 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and parts of Canada.
The network integrates with over 240 short-line railroads and more than 70 ports, allowing the company to effectively reach both urban markets and rural areas. Such connectivity positions it as a critical player in the transportation sector.
In its second quarter, CSX (NASDAQ:CSX) reported operating income of $1.45 billion, with net earnings reaching $963 million. The company experienced a 2% increase in total volume, totaling 1.58 million units compared to the same quarter in 2023. Management is optimistic about achieving year-over-year margin growth throughout the remainder of the year, as the company continues to adapt to changing market conditions.
Analysts have taken notice of CSX’s (NASDAQ:CSX) potential. As per the coverage of 27 analysts, the stock has a consensus Buy rating. As of September 20, the average price target of $40 implies an upside of 14.51% from the present levels. It takes its place on our list of cheap transportation stocks to buy according to analysts.
On August 19, Argus analyst John Eade recommended that investors view recent share price fluctuations as an opportunity to buy. He points out that the rail industry is on a long-term growth trajectory compared to other transportation modes, making the company an attractive investment.
Furthermore, Eade highlighted the company’s consistent history of dividend increases and share buybacks. The analyst maintained a Buy rating and a price target of $39 on the stock.
Overall CSX ranks 6th on our list of the cheap transportation stocks to buy according to analysts. While we acknowledge the potential of CSX as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is promising and trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
