Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript April 25, 2023

Dow Inc. beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $0.58, expectations were $0.36.

Operator: Greetings, and welcome to the Dow First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Dow Investor Relations Vice President, Pankaj Gupta. Mr. Gupta, you may begin.

Pankaj Gupta: Good morning. Thank you for joining Dow's first quarter earnings call. This call is available via webcast and we have prepared slides to supplement our comments today. They are posted on the Investor Relations section of Dow's website and through the link to our webcast. I'm Pankaj Gupta, Dow Investor Relations Vice President, and joining me today on the call are Jim Fitterling, Dow's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Howard Ungerleider, President and Chief Financial Officer. Please read the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the earnings news release and slides. During our call, we will make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations or predictions about the future. Because these statements are based on current assumptions and factors that involve risks and uncertainties, our actual performance and results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements.

Dow's Forms 10-Q and 10-K include detailed discussions of principal risks and uncertainties, which may cause such differences. Unless otherwise specified, all financials where applicable, exclude significant items. We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures is contained in the Dow earnings release, in the slides that supplement our comments today, as well as on the Dow website. On Slide 2, you will see the agenda for our call. Jim will begin by reviewing our first quarter results and operating segment performance. Howard will then share our outlook and margin guidance. To close, Jim will outline how our Decarbonize and Grow and Transform the Waste strategies enable continued value creation.

Following that, we will take your questions. Now let me turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Fitterling: Thank you, Pankaj. Beginning on Slide 3. In the first quarter, Team Dow demonstrated its agility, delivering sequential earnings improvement in what continues to be a challenging environment. These results reflect our competitive advantages and operating discipline as we leveraged our structurally advantaged feedstock positions, proactively aligned our operating rates with market demand and focused on higher-value products where pockets of demand remain resilient, such as pharmaceutical applications, energy, commercial building and construction and mobility end markets. Additionally, our actions to deliver $1 billion in cost savings in 2023 are progressing with $100 million achieved in the first quarter. These actions will ensure we continue to focus on cash flow generation through our low-cost to serve operating model.

Turning to the details of the quarter. Net sales were $11.9 billion, down 22% year-over-year. Declines in all operating segments were driven by continued soft global macroeconomic activity. Sales were flat sequentially, as gains in performance materials and coatings and packaging and specialty plastics offset declines in industrial intermediates and infrastructure. Volume decreased 11% year-over-year, led by declines in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and India or EMEA. However, volumes increased 2% sequentially on gains in performance materials and coatings and packaging and specialty plastics. Local price declined 10% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter, due to industry supply additions in some businesses amidst soft global economic conditions.

Operating EBIT for the quarter was $708 million, down year-over-year due to lower local prices and volumes. Sequentially, operating EBIT improved by $107 million, with gains primarily driven by performance materials and coatings. Cash flow from operations was $531 million in the quarter. On a trailing 12-month basis, cash flow conversion was 85%. With ample financial flexibility and a strong balance sheet, we are continuing to execute on our strategy as we advance our disciplined and balanced capital allocation priorities for long-term value creation. We returned $621 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter and our balance sheet continues to have no substantive long-term debt maturities until 2027.

Now turning to operating segment performance on Slide 4. In the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, operating EBIT was $642 million compared to $1.2 billion in the year ago period, primarily due to lower integrated polyethylene margins. Continued margin resilience in functional polymers was more than offset by lower polyethylene and olefins margins. Volume declines were primarily driven by lower consumer demand in EMEA. Sadara also had lower export volumes due to planned maintenance activity. Sequentially, operating EBIT was down by $13 million. Improved input costs and higher operating rates in our most cost advantage assets were more than offset by lower sales from non-recurring licensing activity and lower equity earnings. Moving to the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment.

Operating EBIT for the segment was $123 million compared to $661 million in the year ago period. Results were driven by lower pricing and demand, as well as higher energy costs, particularly in EMEA. Sequentially, operating EBIT was down $41 million. Lower energy costs were more than offset by decreased demand and pricing for propylene oxide, its derivatives, and in isocyanates, in polyurethanes and construction chemicals. Industrial Solutions experienced lower volumes due to weather-related impacts and a third-party supply outage combined with lower demand in industrial end markets. And in the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, operating EBIT for the segment was $35 million compared to $595 million in the year ago period. Local price declines for siloxanes were driven by competitive pricing pressure from supply additions in China.

Volume was down as resilient demand for commercial building and construction, mobility and industrial coatings was more than offset by volume declines in siloxanes and architectural coatings. Sequentially, operating EBIT increased $165 million, driven by improved supply availability, seasonally higher volumes, and reduced value chain destocking. Next, I'll turn it over to Howard to review our outlooks and actions on Slide 5.

Howard Ungerleider: Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, we expect to continue navigating challenging macro conditions around the world. While the pace of inflation has slowed, elevated levels continue to pressure both input costs and demand, particularly in industrials, durable goods, and housing. On the bright side, demand in agriculture and energy markets remains resilient, as does consumer demand for personal care and household items. In the U.S., consumer spending continues to moderate while retail sales were up 2.9% year-over-year in March. After contracting for five straight months, normalizing value chain inventories are driving improvements in manufacturing PMI, which reached 50.4 in April.

Residential building and construction markets remain under pressure, with housing starts and building permit down around 20% year-over-year in March. However, builder confidence increased for the fourth straight month in April on growing demand in the new home market due to limited resale inventory. In Europe, while energy prices have remained lower than previously anticipated, higher inflation levels continue to weigh on both consumer and business sentiment with manufacturing PMI continuing to contract since July of last year. In China, March industrial production rose 3.9% year-over-year and is recovering gradually with manufacturing PMI now at 50. March retail sales also rose 10.6% year-over-year at their fastest pace since July 2021. Though recovery following the pandemic lockdowns has been slow, we continue expect growth over the medium term.

Against this backdrop, we continue to take disciplined actions to manage our costs and deliver our target of $1 billion in cost savings in 2023. We're implementing our global workforce reduction program of approximately 2,000 roles. Notifications have begun and 75% of the impacted roles will exit by the end of the second quarter. We're also continuing to review our global asset footprint on a business by business and region by region approach, rationalizing select higher cost, lower return assets in line with market fundamentals. Additionally, we're executing opportunities to reduce operating costs. This includes decreasing maintenance turnaround spending by $300 million year-over-year and driving efficiencies through the value chain, including streamlining our logistics networks and reducing our spend of purchased raw materials and contract services.

All in, we expect to deliver approximately 35% of our cost savings in the first half of the year and the remaining 65% in the second half of the year. Turning to our outlook for the second quarter on Slide 6. In the Packaging & Specialty Plastic segment, we see signs of improving domestic demand versus the start of the year, as well as continued easing in marine pack cargo allowing for increased export volumes. We expect healthy oil to gas spreads to continue to favor cost advantaged positions as rates increase to meet seasonally higher demand levels. All in, we expect these factors to have a $75 million tailwind versus the prior quarter, along with another approximately $70 million tailwind from cost savings actions. We anticipate these will be partly offset by a $25 million headwind from a seasonal increase in planned maintenance activity.

In the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment, demand remains resilient in energy and pharmaceutical end markets. However, we expect continued demand pressure in consumer durables, and building and construction, which is also driving a decline in cost pricing from its recent peak. We anticipate a $25 million tailwind from improved volumes in Industrial Solutions following third party outages and the winter weather related impacts, as well as a $20 million tailwind from cost savings actions. Additionally, Dow will begin to turn around at our Louisiana Glycols facility, which is projected to be a $50 million headwind for the segment. In the Performance Materials & Coatings segment, while demand for consumer electronics and industrial end markets is softening, we're seeing a seasonal increase in demand for coating applications as well as improvement in mobility.

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Our cost saving action will deliver a $50 million tailwind for the segment. The completion of our first quarter turnaround at our Deer Park acrylic monomers facility will be offset by impacts from the planned maintenance at our Carrollton and our Zhangjiagang siloxanes facilities. All in, with puts and takes mentioned and listed on our model and guidance slide, we expect a sequential earnings improvement of $150 million to $200 million versus the prior quarter. With that, I'll turn it back to Jim.

Jim Fitterling: Thank you, Howard. Moving to Slide 7. While we expect near term conditions to remain challenging through the year, we continue to see positive underlying demand trends driving above GDP growth across our attractive market verticals over the next few years. Packaging is vital to delivering a lower carbon footprint. Through our $3 million metric ton Transform the Waste commitment, we will capture demand growth for recycled polyethylene, which is accelerating as brand owners and customers increasingly seek more circular products. In Infrastructure, more than $3 trillion in investments will be needed to meet global infrastructure plans. Green buildings are driving demand for Dow products, including low carbon footprint silicone sealants for high rise buildings, reflective roof coatings and lower carbon emissions cement additives.

An expanding middle class will support growth in consumer spending where our products help deliver a lower carbon footprint and enable more sustainable materials through technology, such as biodegradable polymers or bio-based surfactants for home care and thermal conductive silicone gels and adhesives for electronics and batteries. And in mobility, stable global vehicle production growth is expected with increasing demand for electric vehicles which contained 3 times to 4 times more silicone content than internal combustion engine vehicles. Lighter weight vehicles are also aided by our high value polyurethane systems and EPDM technologies. Further, we continue to execute our targeted suite of higher return, lower risk projects, which are expected to add $2 billion in underlying EBITDA by the middle of the decade.

These investments put us in an advantaged position to capture demand as economies recover and raise our underlying earnings profile. Turning to Slide 8. With growing consumer and brand owner demand for more sustainable and circular products, leading in the transition to a more sustainable future remains critical to our strategy to drive growth and shareholder value creation. In collaboration with X-energy, in the second quarter we expect to select an analysis site in the U.S. Gulf Coast to develop a small modular nuclear energy facility by 2030. Nuclear technology will be key in generating safe and reliable power and steam at our sites, while enabling zero CO2 emissions manufacturing. In Alberta, we recently awarded Fluor with a contract to provide front end engineering and design services for our Path2Zero project.

Today, we achieved another key milestone by selecting Linde as our industrial gas supplier to supply nitrogen and clean hydrogen for the site. Securing partner agreements and subsidies is our next step. All of these actions are critical to reaching a final investment decision this year. As a reminder, this investment for the world's first net zero CO2 emissions ethylene and derivatives complex will decarbonize 20% of our global ethylene capacity. At the same time, it will grow our global polyethylene supply by 15% and triple our Alberta site polyethylene capacity. We're also taking a capital efficient approach to meet increasing demand for more circular solutions as we scale up production for both advanced and mechanical recycling with strategic partners like Valoregen, Mura Technology, and WM among others.

Valoregen's 15 kiloton mechanical recycling facility in France will start up during the second half of this year. This hybrid recycling plant is expected to process up to 70 kilotons of plastic waste per year by 2025. And Mura remains on track to start up the first of its kind, 20 kiloton per year advanced recycling plant in Teesside in the United Kingdom in the second half of this year. This is the first step in our strategic partnership with Mura to launch as much as 600 kilotons per year of advanced recycling capacity by 2030. As the key off taker of post-consumer and advanced recycled feed from both of these partnerships, Dow well commercialize circular polymers in high demand from global brands. Altogether by 2030, we are on track to deliver an additional $1 billion in underlying EBITDA improvement through our Alberta project, commercialize 3 million metric tons per year of circular and renewable solutions and reduce Scope 1 and 2 CO2 emissions by 5 million metric tons compared to our 2020 levels.

Turning to Slide 9. We remain focused on delivering on our commitments with transparency, accountability and a culture of benchmarking. Today, we published our annual benchmarking update as we have every year since spin, which can be found in the appendix of this presentation and is posted on our website. The results, once again, demonstrate our strong performance relative to peers. In particular, Dow delivered best-in-class free cash flow yield and net debt reduction since spin. We also achieved above peer median return on invested capital and returns to shareholders. Taking a closer look at the results on Slide 10, our free cash flow yield on a three year average is nearly 2 times the peer average and 3 times the sector and market averages.

Our differentiated portfolio, cost advantaged assets and operating discipline have resulted in three year EBITDA margins and return on invested capital well above the peer median. This includes our 15% return on invested capital, which is above our 13% target across the economic cycle. Our focus on cash flow generation has supported strong shareholder returns and our strengthened balance sheet has resulted in improved credit ratings and outlooks. Additionally, all operating segments achieved best-in-class or top quartile free cash conversion and cost performance. Notably, Packaging & Specialty Plastics further expanded its outperformance over the next best peer on an EBITDA per pound of polyolefin basis by $0.05 per pound. It also delivered five year average EBITDA margins 500 basis points above the peer median.

Looking forward, our growth investments throughout the decade will further enhance our competitive advantages and shareholder value creation. Closing, on Slide 11. Dow continues to execute with consistency and discipline to deliver resilient performance in the near term and sustainable growth in cash flow generation over the long-term. We're implementing targeted actions across the enterprise to reduce costs and maximize cash. Our strong balance sheet provides financial flexibility as we continue to deliver against our capital allocation priorities and our Decarbonize and Grow and Transform the Waste strategies will raise our underlying earnings profile, while reducing our carbon footprint and increasing recycled content. All combined, we are confident in our ability to continue delivering against our financial targets across the economic cycle.

With that, I'll turn it back to Pankaj to open up the Q&A.

Pankaj Gupta: Thank you, Jim. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.

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