Earnings Miss: WK Kellogg Co Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

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Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 21% over the past week following WK Kellogg Co's (NYSE:KLG) latest yearly results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$2.8b, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at US$1.28 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for WK Kellogg Co

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Following last week's earnings report, WK Kellogg Co's ten analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$2.71b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 12% to US$1.44. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.36 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on WK Kellogg Co's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$14.63, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values WK Kellogg Co at US$27.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$11.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.0% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.7% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - WK Kellogg Co is expected to lag the wider industry.