Stocks have surged across a variety of sectors to start the year. First quarter earnings season is about to put the breadth of the rally to the test.
"We can always talk about price action and whether, you know, the rally is widening, but at the end of the day, it's about earnings and fundamentals," Deutsche Bank chief equity strategist Binky Chadha told Yahoo Finance.
First quarter earnings reports will kick off in earnest on Friday with JPMorgan (JPM) and other banks set to release results before the opening bell. Earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL) will serve as an appetizer on Wednesday.
Broadly, consensus sees earnings growing compared to the year prior for a third straight quarter. Consensus expectations are for a 3.2% year-over-year earnings increase for S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies in the first quarter, per FactSet data.
Market bulls expect earnings and forward guidance for the rest of the year to show the outlook for corporates is improving despite a continued high interest rate environment. Bank of America US and Canada equity strategist Ohsung Kwon pointed out to Yahoo Finance Live that recent data on economic growth has surprised consensus to the upside, and that likely indicates "consensus might be too low, especially this earnings season."
"We're looking for another strong quarter [of earnings growth]," Kwon said.
Still, the companies driving the overall earnings growth for the S&P 500 aren't expected to shift much this quarter.
Research from Goldman Sachs' equity strategy team led by David Kostin shows the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 — primarily the Magnificent Seven — are expected to see earnings grow by 32% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the other 490 stocks are projected to produce an earnings decline of 4%.
Nvidia (NVDA) is the clear leader of the group, with earnings expected to grow 406% compared to the year prior, followed by Amazon's (AMZN) 175% expected growth. Meta (META), Eli Lily (LLY), Alphabet (GOOGL), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B), Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Apple (AAPL) round out the rest of the top 10.
This leaves the overall earnings picture for the benchmark index levered to the index's largest corporations once again.?
Kostin notes that if those companies continue to perform, the likelihood of an "acute catch down" — where stocks fall to reprice slower-than-expected earnings growth — is "relatively slim."
Instead, bullish investors are looking for a "catch-up" scenario in markets where the earnings for the other 490 companies in the S&P 500 start to rebound later in the year. While that trend won't be the clear driver of earnings growth this quarter, Chadha at Deutsche Bank believes there will be signs of a rotation under the surface in earnings growth, backing the recent market narrative that a growing US economy will be a tailwind for stocks outside the tech sector.
"With a cyclical uptake, with the pickup in CEO confidence that we've seen and talked about, you should start to see much better earnings," Chadha said. "You should start to see much better and more confident guidance."
To be clear, Chadha still sees "good earnings" for megacap growth and tech moving forward. But he believes the companies' guidance released this quarter will show some signs of a cooldown from the astronomical earnings growth seen by some large companies in 2023.
If this is met by upbeat guidance from the other areas of the market, it would "continue to encourage" the rotation seen in markets over the past month with sectors like Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), and Industrials (XLI) outpacing gains in Technology (XLK) and Communications Services (XLC).
Charles Schwab global chief investment strategist Jeffrey Kleintop told Yahoo Finance Live that if first quarter earnings calls indicate a rotation may be underway, that'd be a welcome sign for the health of the stock market rally.
He added that the recent pickup in manufacturing activity, which grew at its fastest pace in the US since 2022, shows analyst expectation for an earnings pickup in economic-sensitive sectors is more than "hope."
"It's a second wind for the stock market," Kleintop said.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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