Will the Election Impact Consumer Behavior?

Kate Nishimura
5 min read

Elections don’t typically have a marked impact on shoppers’ spending, but consumer sentiment surrounding the results of political races does often demonstrate fluctuations. That trend holds true for the upcoming face-off between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

More than half (51 percent) of Americans said they aren’t fazed by the forthcoming presidential election’s impact on their finances, according to newly released data from Ipsos—and more than one-third agree that the results won’t even impact the economy.

More from Sourcing Journal

But those feelings dissipate when voters consider the possibility that their favored candidate might not win.

Three out of five shoppers—61 percent—believe that their personal economic situation will face negative impacts if their party’s nominee loses. Those feelings run deeper on one side of the political spectrum: a whopping 76 percent of Republican respondents expressed anxieties about their finances should the Republican nominee lose the race, compared to 60 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of independents who said the same about their own preferred candidate.

Republicans are also more apt to tighten their purse strings in the lead-up to election day on Nov. 5, with 55 percent saying they’re reining in spending. That’s slightly above the 53 percent of independent voters who said the same, and significantly more than the 39 percent of Democrats who said they were cutting back. More than half (52 percent) of Republicans also said they’re looking to “save more due to the uncertainty of the time period leading up to the election,” while 45 percent of independents and 42 percent of Democrats said the same.

Out of all respondents surveyed, Democrats (60 percent) were the most likely to say that the election has no impact on their spending. Independents (58 percent) answered similarly, while just 40 percent of Republicans said they’d maintain current spending patterns in light of the presidential race.

And while, on the whole, most voters believe the election’s results won’t change the trajectory of the economy, Republicans (22 percent) are less likely to subscribe to that thinking than Democrats (36 percent) or independents (53 percent).

“Generally, there’s not a lot of evidence that elections change spending too much. Consumer confidence tends to pause in periods around elections, but given America’s generally low voter turn-out, many aren’t phased by elections one way or another,” wrote Matt Carmichael, head of the Ipsos Trends and Foresight Lab. Carmichael questioned whether this year’s race is different, or whether respondents are simply overestimating its impact on their behaviors.

Recommended Stories