ESPN will look dramatically different in 1 year

This week, ESPN laid off more than 100 employees, almost all of them TV personalities, radio hosts, and writers. It had been widely reported that cuts were coming, but in the end, the company cut double the number initially expected.

The cuts played out very publicly, given the intense scrutiny and fascination with the “worldwide leader in sports.” ESPN employees, both at headquarters in Bristol, Conn., and all over the country, took it hard, sharing their sadness on the air and in tweets and Facebook posts.

And the pain isn’t over yet.

ESPN is making serious changes to its entire content strategy and its programming, and that could easily mean more layoffs again before the end of 2017. It will be stressful and sad for many employees, but it has to happen. And it could end being good for the health of the company.

You don’t need to read between the lines of the company’s public statements very much to see that ESPN is initiating an effort to completely reinvent itself. The company has had worse layoffs than this before: it cut 300 people just two years ago. But this time, because the cuts were people that the public recognizes, it felt more brutal, and it also reveals more about the company’s future.

ESPN is adapting to the realities facing all media companies: consumers only want to consume the content they want, and increasingly they want to consume it on a phone, computer, or tablet, not a television, and they don’t want to pay to get something they don’t want. You would think these maxims are obvious by now, but much of the cable industry is built on the opposite—bundling channels together for a fat monthly fee. Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer put it well on our live show this week: “Because they’ve been part of the bundle, a lot of people have been paying for ESPN who don’t want to watch it. That’s not a great business model, people paying for something they don’t want.”

In Disney’s Q1 2017 earnings in February (it will report Q2 earnings May 9) it reported that operating income for its cable networks division, which includes ESPN, fell 11% to $900 million. Why? The company didn’t mince words: “The decrease in operating income was due to a decrease at ESPN… Operating income at our other cable networks was essentially flat.” In other words: ESPN, increasingly, is the dark cloud in Disney’s quarterly earnings reports.

But don’t mistake this: ESPN is profitable. It makes a lot of money. It’s simply making less money than it did in the past. Why? Cord-cutting. Or, to put it in financial terms: rising programming costs, falling subscription revenue. (And FS1 faces the same problem.)