Yesterday's move by the Swiss National Bank to disband the relationship between the franc and the euro sent markets around the globe into a frenzy. The decision came just days ahead of the next European Central Bank meeting, where Mario Draghi and company are expected to announce a substantial round of quantitative easing. Had the franc still been attached to the fate of the euro, that QE would have been felt in Switzerland in a very real way. The move was a preemptive and defensive play.

Still, the Euro has been beaten and battered over the last eight months. Outside of Switzerland, the rest of the continent waits with bated breath for Draghi's next move. For investors, as the euro has fallen the short trade has become the “it” position. “It’s a very crowded trade right now,” notes Bill Baruch of iiTrader.com. “Everybody’s jumping on board. It was one thing to start selling in the summer of last year, but now it’s very crowded to the short side.”

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While Baruch believes there’s room to the down side (to $1.10, he says) in the longer term, next week's meeting of the European Central Bank may present a shorter term trading opportunity. “Everyone is already pricing in this large scale quantitative easing from Draghi and the ECB. He has a history of over promising and under delivering.” Baruch argues.

While some were initially looking for a bond buy in the neighborhood of a trillion euros, now the whispers are more in the 500 billion euro range. “What they [the ECB] love to see is the euro to go lower ahead of this meeting. The lower it goes the less they actually have to deliver,” Baruch points out.

The less they have to deliver, he believes, the more likely a pop in the euro.

“If they under deliver less than that [500 billion euro] you’re gonna see a lot of the shorts in this market scramble to get out. What we’d really love to see is a selling opportunity at 1.22 in the euro. Now, is it gonna get there? Maybe not, but you have to manage risk if that is gonna happen.”

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Even if it doesn’t, any “under delivery” by the ECB next week will help the currency market consolidate enough to get the euro back over 1.20, something Baruch thinks is the ultimate goal of the ECB...at least for now.

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