Fed Minutes: What is Janet Yellen's way forward?

The latest Federal Reserve minutes are expected to be released this afternoon, and later this month the FOMC will meet again. The expectation is that Fed Chair Janet Yellen and company will officially taper the last of QE into oblivion and, in all likelihood, keep language in place that suggests no rate hike is on the immediate horizon.

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher have, in particular, voiced opposition to Chair Yellen’s apparent plan to leave rates unchanged.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen may have a harder road ahead of her than last week's jobs report suggests.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen may have a harder road ahead of her than last week's jobs report suggests.

David Nelson of Belpointe seems to agree, calling any plan to keep rates this low “unhealthy.” As it is, he notes that he has pushed his original target of next March by at least a month or two. “I’ve got to push it out because we haven’t had a change in the language,” he notes. “If they don’t take out ‘considerable period of time’ then we gotta push it out another month, and we’re already out to May or June because there is a six-month lag [from the change in language] before you get a fed hike.

“It will be monumental just to get to one [percent interest rates],” Nelson argues. “Nobody’s talking about raising rates to three or four [percent]. We may not see those for a decade or more. But it’s time to take your foot off the accelerator.”

Yellen’s troubles, however, don’t end there. Nelson points out that while last week’s jobs report looked quite strong, the numbers underneath the headline figures - namely, more evidence of stagnant wage growth - should be of considerable concern to the Fed. Yes, a lack of inflation helps hide the pain of stagnant wages, but as Neslon says, that means “we’re getting by, but it’s not great.”

The rubber will hit the road, he says, at the ballot box. While the President is out highlighting job growth, “the average American is not feeling it. So there’s probably something out there that we should really understand -- wage growth is important.” With Americans set to take to the polls in just four weeks, the truth about the American economy may come into starker relief.

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