Forget China, the Fed needs to raise rates now: Top economists

After a weekend of fishing in the woods of Maine, some of the nation’s top economists have reached a consensus: the time has come for the Fed to raise rates.

Every August, some of the leading names in economics and money management get together to attend “Camp Kotok” at Grand Lake Stream, Maine. But it’s about more than swapping fishing tales.

Instead, some of the most important issues in finance and economics are discussesd by the select few attendees, which this year included former Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and the top economists at several of the country’s largest banks.

According to the man behind the event, the overall view is that the Fed is set to raise the fed funds rate, which remains near 0% where it has been since the end of 2008, as soon as September.

“The indications are this is long overdue,” said David Kotok, chairman of Cumberland Advisors, which manages $2.4 billion. “The consensus up in Maine was it’s about time. All of the requirements to get above 0% are in place. We’ve got to get away from 0%. It’s disturbing things.”

Kotok rejects the notion that the Fed will hold off on a rate hike now that China's markets have taken a tumble since June and its central bank has allowed its currency to devalue.

“If the Federal Reserve changes a policy direction because of a 3% move in the Chinese currency, that would be the first time they ignored the United States of America in favor of something like that,” he said. “That’s not enough.”

Kotok expects the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by as much as 100 basis points (1 percentage point) over the course of 12 months. Such a move would be beneficial to the overall market, he maintains.

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“What it has to do is get markets to have price discovery,” said Kotok. “You don’t get price discovery in the front of the yield curve at 0%. They’ve got to get away from 0%. I think there’s unanimity at the Federal Open Market Committee to get away from 0%. The question is always when, not if. “

The move will benefit the large amount of money in short-term holdings, according to Kotok.

“There’s billions which are in the cash-equivalent area which will have to have price discovery,” he said. “We’ll start to see something other than 0.01% in our money market fund account at our brokerage firm.”

Kotok, author of “Adventures in Muniland”, sees at least one good buy in this current low-rate environment: highly-rated municipal bonds.

“Munis are cheap in the high-grade sector,” he said. “You get a AAA credit yielding 150 basis points more than a Treasury which is taxable sitting out there but people aren’t buying them. They are afraid of them because they think interest rates are going to go up. I will take 4% tax-free on AAA debt against the Treasury all the time.”

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