GM Q3 earnings preview: What to watch

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Investors are expecting more upbeat results from GM (GM) after the automaker raised its guidance for a second time earlier this year on the back of decent US sales. Questions around GM’s EV business and inventory management, however, will be in focus when the company reports third quarter results on Tuesday morning.

For the quarter, GM is expected to report revenue of $44.69 billion per Bloomberg consensus, sequentially lower than last quarter’s nearly $48 billion, but to be expected given the second quarter’s historically strong sales. GM’s Q3 revenue is expected to be higher than a year ago.

GM is expected to book $2.44 in adjusted EPS (earnings per share), translating to adjusted net income of $2.72 billion, and operating profit of $3.38 billion.

Following strong Q2 results in July, GM lifted its 2024 guidance for a second time, with the company now expecting full-year adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of $13 billion to $15 billion, up from the prior $12.5 billion to $14.5 billion. GM also said it projects full-year adjusted EPS of $9.50 to $10.50, compared to $9.00 to $10.00 prior.

While analysts are not expecting another guidance boost, upbeat commentary would be welcome. There are concerns the company may be facing headwinds such as pricing deterioration and inventory build, issues that have affected Big Three rival Stellantis.

For the third quarter, GM delivered 659,601 vehicles, down 2% compared to a year ago; however, retail sales were up 3%. GM said it delivered more vehicles than any other automaker in the US in Q3.

Not surprisingly, GM’s sales of pickups and full-size SUVs led the way, but EV sales were also a highlight. Despite the drop in sales for the Bolt EV, GM’s other EVs picked up the slack, with sales of 32,195 EVs in total, up 60% compared to a year ago.

The EV business will also be of concern to investors. At the company's investor day earlier this month, GM CFO Paul Jacobson said it’s still targeting EV profitability on a positive variable profit margin basis, despite the fact that it lowered its EV production volume to 200,000 units for the year from 200,000 to 250,000. The company is expecting to trim EV costs by $2 billion to $4 billion in 2025.

In a presentation, the company said peak EV losses in 2024 will “help upcoming years as we expect EV EBIT to improve significantly.”

Unsold 2024 electric Lyriq utility vehicles sit in a row outside a Cadillac dealership Sunday, June 2, 2024, in Lone Tree, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Unsold 2024 electric Lyriq utility vehicles sit in a row outside a Cadillac dealership Sunday, June 2, 2024, in Lone Tree, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

As for the third quarter, Deutsche Bank analysts expect an upbeat report.

“For the quarter, GM should at least meet or exceed Consensus expectations, thanks largely to consistent pricing with some small moderations,” Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu wrote in a note to investors.