Goosehead Insurance's (NASDAQ:GSHD) 13% CAGR outpaced the company's earnings growth over the same five-year period
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When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Goosehead Insurance, Inc (NASDAQ:GSHD) share price is up 81% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Zooming in, the stock is up a respectable 17% in the last year.
On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.
View our latest analysis for Goosehead Insurance
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Goosehead Insurance achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 24% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 13% average annual increase in the share price. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock. Of course, with a P/E ratio of 113.98, the market remains optimistic.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered Goosehead Insurance's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Goosehead Insurance's TSR of 85% for the 5 years exceeded its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
Goosehead Insurance shareholders gained a total return of 17% during the year. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 13% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Goosehead Insurance (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.