Harris vs. Trump will define a green power-fossil fuel debate. How far they can go depends on Congress.

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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump offer a clear contrast on whether the energy debate in the US over the next four years will revolve around green power or fossil fuels.

But how much they can follow through on their various promises will come down to how extensive their party’s control of Washington is.

For Trump's plans to roll back the government's role in green energy, the former president would likely need more than a solo victory to fulfill that promise. He would also need a cooperative Congress.

By contrast, a victory by either Harris or Trump could alter the path ahead for fossil fuels, as the president is imbued with more unilateral authorities there, although Harris has promised to take a moderate approach to traditional energy sources.

Yahoo Finance photo illustration (Images: Getty Images)
Yahoo Finance photo illustration (Images: Getty Images)

Either way, Stifel chief Washington policy strategist Brian Gardner offered a warning to investors and industry watchers in a recent note, pointing out that the best time to own green energy stocks was during Trump’s previous term and the best time to own fossil fuel stocks was more recently under Biden.

"This is the cautionary tale that pro-industry policies do not always correlate to stock performance," he wrote.

For Harris, promises of an 'all of the above' energy approach

Harris used her one and only debate face off with Trump to offer a tone on energy issues that hasn't been heard from Democrats as of late.

"My position is that we have got to invest in diverse sources of energy so we reduce our reliance on foreign oil," said Harris, at one point touching on green energy while also underlining the fact that she helped approve new leases for fracking during the Biden administration.

It was immediately described by many as akin to an "all of the above" energy approach that was popular in years past among Democrats from Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama but less so in recent years.

TOPSHOT - US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks during a presidential debate with former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris makes a point during a presidential debate with former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Sept. 10. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images) · SAUL LOEB via Getty Images

Harris's evolution on the issue is also crucial in the swing state of Pennsylvania, which is heavily reliant on fracking and has looked warily at Harris’s pledges back in 2019 to ban the practice.

As for what she would do in office, experts like Stifel’s Gardner expect that if elected “even though Harris has backed away from positions to crack down on oil and gas, we expect her administration would still aim to boost clean energy over traditional energy.”