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The U.S. economy hit the brakes at the start of 2015 by almost every measure. On Tuesday, the Commerce Departerment reported retail sales rose 0.9% in March, the first gain in fourth months but less than the consenus estimate for a gain of 1.1%. Retail sales excluding autos were also weaker-than-expected.

In the face of all the dismal data, estimates for first-quarter GDP growth have fallen precipitously: the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is now forecasting zero growth in Q1, down from 2.3% in mid-February.

Of course, we saw a similar drop in 2014 and the economy surged back in the second half of last year. In other words: Remain calm, all is well.

The consensus is the "downside surprises" in Q1 reflect "temporary factors to a significant degree," as New York Fed President Bill Dudley put it in a recent speech. These 'temporary' factors include harsh winter weather, a strong dollar, West Coast port disruptions, and weakness in energy sector hiring and investment following crude's slide in the second-half of 2014. Moody's Analytics estimates these factors shaved about 1.5% off first-quarter GDP.

The conventional wisdom is this too shall pass and the economy will rebound, similar to what occurred in 2014. Again, the NY Fed's Dudley: "My outlook for 2015 is that economic growth will be close to the pace of the past two years, supported by continued solid fundamentals and accommodative financial conditions."

But what if the consensus is wrong, as is so often the case? What if we've already seen the peak of the recovery as the charts below suggest?

 

 

To be sure, and to be fair, I couldn't find any 'mainstream' economist who subscribes to the thesis. And by 'mainstream' I mean actual economists and people who haven't been saying 'we've seen the peak' for the past five years, aka the permabears.

"The problem is it's really, really hard to identify economic turning points in real time no matter how well your model is built," says Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG. "There's a reason why you don't date a recession until six or nine months after a recession started. There's a lot that goes into it."

Indeed, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of the nation's business cycles, says the current expansion began in June 2009 -- but they didn't make that formal announcement until September 2010. So, again, it's possible the economy is already entering a new recession but it's a highly speculative call right now.