Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) last week reported its latest second-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Hillman Solutions reported US$379m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.06 beat expectations, being 9.1% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Hillman Solutions

Following last week's earnings report, Hillman Solutions' nine analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.46b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 355% to US$0.14. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.12 in 2024. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, the analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company's cost base, given the sizeable expansion in to the earnings per share numbers.

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of US$12.00, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Hillman Solutions, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$16.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.6% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Hillman Solutions' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.