Hints of recession as American consumers grow confident

Cue the Debbie Downer sad trombone; stock futures are lower. Frankly it could be worse. The gap higher we talked about yesterday morning was met first with a spate of lousy headlines then, as day follows night, a bunch of selling. When the dust cleared the S&P 500 (^GSPC) had yet again gone red for the the year. It was ugly but at least it wasn't boring. So there's that.

Copper has dipped below a key level of support and that may spell trouble says Jeff Macke
Copper has dipped below a key level of support and that may spell trouble says Jeff Macke

Here's the thing: commodity prices are screaming that the world is staring into an abyss of economic misery. It's not just oil. Look at copper (HGK15.CMX) For decades copper has been the commodity of choice for measuring global growth. Simply put, copper goes in everything and right now no one wants any. Prices are down almost 10% this week; way below the $3 mark that has been support for almost five years.

Related: Crude troubles continue: Stocks tracing an ominous pattern

It's one thing for growth the be slowing in parts of the world Americans think of as "other places." Unfortunately the malaise seems to be spreading. Yesterday's reversal in stocks was sparked in part by home builder KB Homes (KBH) warning that margins would be weak. We don't live and die by housing in the U.S. anymore but it still matters, at least to bulls.

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We wonks may already have been aware of these problems but the general population isn't. According to Gallup Americans got net positive on the economy for the first time in nearly seven years less than three weeks ago. A recession now would be like Lucy spending almost a decade talking Charlie Brown into kicking the football only to yank it away yet again. It's predictably cruel but that doesn't change the fact that Ol' Charlie Brown is an angry brain damage victim unlikely to put much money into  stocks any time soon.

Where's that leave us? Right where we were yesterday: in the coldest, most miserable, longest month of the year. Watch 2,000 on the S&P 500 and buckle up; a buying opportunity could be in the offing.

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