Futures are off a tick but no one's complaining except the whiners and the bears after the 10% run we've made off the lows. At least domestically the news flow is tapering off for the year. Last night specialty goods maker Fossil (FOSL) crushed estimates and finished higher by $9 in after hours trading. That's marginally good news but as more retailers report in the next week it's hard to see a way they are going to push the tape off track.
Related: Markets have 5-10% left to run this year: Hirsch
The bigger news of the day comes out of Tokyo where the Nikkei 225 (^N225) has tacked on 2.5% in the last two days. The Japanese version of the Dow is now up about 100% in the last two years and at 17,192 is sitting at levels not seen in seven years.
This move comes at an interesting time historically for the Nikkei. It was 20 years ago this month when a trader named Nick Leeson lost nearly $1 billion betting on Nikkei futures, leading directly to the end of 235 year-old Barings Bank. Leeson was down $500 million in December of 1994 and the losses mounted into 1995. When Leeson quit at the end of February 1995 the Nikkei was sitting at 17,053. I don't know him personally but I'd be willing to bet that somewhere Nick Leeson is loudly claiming he wasn't wrong about the Nikkei rally, just a little early.
[Get the Latest Market Data and News with the Yahoo Finance App]
How does that pertain to today? Two ways spring to mind. One, the instinct to try to ride out losses or dig yourself out by doubling down isn't new. In fact, it predates Leeson by at least 200 years when Casanova, yes, that Casanova, lost everything playing roulette using the Martingale system. Suffice it to say doubling down on losers has never been a good strategy.
Related: Stocks have seen lion's share of 2014 gains
The second, more actionable observation is that the Nasdaq (^IXIC), which is sort of the U.S. version of the Nikkei, is now sitting just 8.5% from the intraday high of the bubble in March of 2000. Is it possible we hit that mark by the 15th anniversary of the top next Spring? I'd say it's probable. If it happens, when it happens, the move will come at the expense of the doubters, haters and scolds stuck in the same trap that took down Leeson and Casanova: Betting on hubris and hope rather than humility and experience.
More from Yahoo Finance:
Investing 101: Size matters, not emotions, when deciding how much of a stock to own
OPEC withering away as oil prices slide: Peter Kenny
Does Tesla need Apple to reach its lofty sales goals?