Japan’s Leadership Contenders and Their Key Policy Positions
(Bloomberg) -- Japan is set to get a new leader after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last week said he won’t run in an election for the presidency of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September. The president of the LDP is virtually assured of becoming prime minister because of the party’s dominance in parliament.
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LDP lawmaker Takayuki Kobayashi, a former minister for economic security, said Monday he would run in the race, becoming the first to formally declare his candidacy. More candidates are likely to make their intentions known in coming days. A major hurdle for all seeking the post is securing the recommendations of 20 LDP lawmakers, a requirement to run.
The election will be held on Sept. 27 and official campaigning starts Sept. 12.
Here’s a look at some of the contenders to replace Kishida.
Takayuki Kobayashi
At 49, Kobayashi is considered part of the younger generation of potential leaders. He is a bit of a long shot to take over in 2024 but by running now he is letting LDP members and voters know he has his eyes set on eventually becoming premier.
The former minister for economic security was a backer of deregulation when he was in the cabinet. He also said Japan must seek a balance between allowing companies and research institutions to work together as needed across borders, while mitigating any side-effects in terms of national security.
Key policies:
Monetary: Has spoken about the difficulties of absorbing bonds domestically and the need for seeking overseas investors
Economy: In making his announcement to run, he said the “economy takes precedence over finance,” indicating that spending for growth was important. He added he will present price relief measures this year and called for increasing wages for younger workers
Trade: Expressed need for Japan to strengthen its supply chain across all industries, including for critical minerals like lithium and cobalt that are necessary in energy transition technologies
Yoko Kamikawa
Foreign Minister Kamikawa, 71, is a Harvard graduate who ran her own consulting firm before going into politics. She said Monday she is looking to run, seeking to become Japan’s first female premier. She is known for her efforts to promote women candidates, which is an uphill battle given that only about 12% of LDP lawmakers are female. Kamikawa has also come under fire from activists for signing off on as many as sixteen executions, including six members of the Aum Shinrikyo doomsday cult, while serving as the justice minister. Kamikawa is an English speaker.
Key Policies:
Monetary: No clear stance has been conveyed yet. She is likely to back initiatives Kishida supported during his nearly three years in office to end the country’s deflationary malaise through raising wages and investments
Fiscal: She supported active fiscal spending ahead of the last LDP election in 2021 and has since cautioned on the need for fiscal discipline
Foreign: Has backed trilateral security cooperation among Japan, South Korea and the US and has pressed to advance human rights globally
Other Potential Candidates
Shigeru Ishiba
A former defense minister who has made several unsuccessful runs for the leadership role, Ishiba, 67, regularly tops the list of politicians voters would like to see as the next premier. In recent weeks, Ishiba has expressed support for the Bank of Japan’s normalization of monetary policy. Respondents to a Kyodo poll released Monday put him at the top of the list of people most suitable to take over as premier.
Key policies:
Monetary: Has backed the BOJ’s July 31 decision to raise rates and has criticized the government’s past long-term extraordinary easing policy
Economic: Advocates policies including reinvigorating domestic demand to spur growth, rather than relying on foreign trade
Foreign: Has been a strong backer of democracy in Taiwan and building partnerships in the region as a way of deterrence against the likes of China
Domestic: Says regenerating Japan’s regions needs to be one of the core pillars of economic policy
Kono Taro
An political maverick and fluent English speaker who has long been popular with the public and the LDP at large, Kono lost to Kishida in the last party presidential election due to a lack of backing from his parliamentary peers. Yet the fact he is seen as an outsider could prompt the party to turn to him to refurbish its image, which was tarnished by a political fund-raising scandal. Currently minister for digital transformation, He has served as foreign minister and defense minister. Kono, 61, has softened his opposition to nuclear power in recent years. He also asks that his name be written in the Japanese style with family name first.
Key policies:
Monetary: Has said BOJ should continue with rate hikes. Has also said the weak yen is a problem for Japan
Fiscal: Has backed emergency spending but has said content of packages is more important than size
Foreign: Has been a strong backer of bolstering the alliance with the US. Expressed concern about Beijing’s rise and has said Japan should join the “Five Eyes” intelligence grouping comprised of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US
Digital: He called for ending antiquated practices such as use of name stamps
Toshimitsu Motegi
A party heavyweight who recently said the BOJ should more clearly show its intention to normalize monetary policy, Motegi is currently the secretary-general of the LDP. A former foreign minister, he’s also a Harvard graduate and has a tough guy image within the LDP. Political analysts say Motegi, 68, might be able to replicate the personal relationship formed by late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe with Donald Trump if Trump wins the US presidential election in November.
Key policies:
Monetary: Has said BOJ should more clearly show its intention to normalize monetary policy in order to support the yen, as the weak currency might drive up prices
Fiscal: As party secretary-general, Motegi has been a backer of current fiscal policies and is likely to support the status quo. He has advocated returning some of Japan’s increased tax revenues to the people via direct tax cuts
Foreign: As foreign minister, Motegi showed support for peace in the Taiwan Strait, while also planning for contingencies
Shinjiro Koizumi
The son of former premier Junichiro, Shinjiro Koizumi attracted attention in September for surfing off Fukushima in a bid to soothe concerns over safety following the release of treated wastewater from the wrecked nuclear plant nearby. A 43-year-old former environment minister and proponent of renewable energy who attacked government support for coal generation, he made headlines for marrying a well-known TV newscaster and for becoming the first serving cabinet minister to take paternity leave. He has largely kept a low profile since telling a 2019 news conference he wanted to make the fight against climate change “sexy” — a remark seen by many in Japan as a gaffe.
Key policies
Energy: In a recent podcast on Radio Nikkei, he said there won’t be enough electricity supply to power Japan’s economy if nuclear power plants don’t operate
Digital: He set up a cross-party group in November to advocate for the introduction of ride-sharing apps to help resolve the shortage of taxi drivers
Sanae Takaichi
A former heavy metal drummer turned hard-line conservative, Takaichi has cited the late UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as an inspiration. Though currently serving as minister for economic security, she set up her own study group in November, which raised eyebrows because it’s seen as a means of gathering support for a leadership challenge. Selecting Takaichi, a frequent visitor to Yasukuni Shrine, which is regarded across the region as a symbol of Japan’s past militarism, would endanger the country’s recent rapprochement with South Korea and could further sour ties with China. She has advocated more reliance on nuclear power and expressed concerns about environmental damage caused by solar panels.
Key policies:
Monetary: Support for ultra-loose monetary policy of stance former Prime Minister Abe
Energy: Ahead of 2021 LDP leadership race, she backed the use of nuclear power, especially next-generation technologies like small modular reactors
Katsunobu Kato
The former health minister and chief cabinet secretary is a dark horse but also the type of person who could emerge as a compromise candidate. The seven-term lawmaker helped guide Japan through the Covid-19 pandemic, when the country fared better than most of its Group of Seven peers. Kato has not ruffled a lot of feathers in the ruling party, which could work in his favor, while playing key roles under the last three premiers. The 68-year-old worked at the Ministry of Finance before entering politics. Kato said on Tuesday he’s now seeking 20 endorsements to run in the race.
Key policies:
Monetary policy: In a Bloomberg interview, he said Japan should continue to aim for a world where interest rates and prices keep moving
Economic policy: Aims for sustainable growth by making major investments to boost productivity
Fiscal policy: Maintains a balanced approach to managing fiscal health and seeking growth
Energy: Wants to break away from carbon fuel through research and development of new technologies such as offshore wind power, hydrogen energy and storage batteries
Digitalization: Aims to realize a “digital society” that anyone can use with convenience, such as by integrating health insurance cards and driver’s licenses into My Number cards
Other names listed as possible candidates include current Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, lawmaker Seiko Noda, who previously came up short on her bid to become the country’s first female premier, and Ken Saito, the minister of economy, trade and industry.
--With assistance from Isabel Reynolds and Yuki Hagiwara.
(Updates with details, adds list of other candidates.)
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