Jobs report smashes forecasts as red hot labor market confounds Wall Street

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Updated at 10:06 AM EDT

The U.S. economy added the biggest number of new jobs to the economy in nearly a year last month, as wage gains continue to indicate a hot labor market will stoke inflation concern into the spring and summer.

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday that 303,000 net new jobs were created in March. That's up from the downwardly revised total of 275,000 recorded in February and firmly ahead of the six-month average of around 231,000. Economists were looking for a headline total of 212,000.

The economy has added 829,000 new jobs over the first three months of the year, down around 9.4% from the 915,000 total created over the same period in 2023.

Average hourly earnings held steady from February levels and were up by 0.3%, matching the smallest increase since last autumn, while the year-on-year gain was pegged at 4.1%, one of the highest totals since summer 2021.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has yet to see "cracks" in the labor market, and remains sanguine about accelerated hiring as long as wages aren't spiraling out of control.<p>Bloomberg/Getty Images</p>
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has yet to see "cracks" in the labor market, and remains sanguine about accelerated hiring as long as wages aren't spiraling out of control.

Bloomberg/Getty Images

Meanwhile, the labor-force-participation rate edged higher, to 62.7%, while the headline unemployment rate slipped to 3.8%, just inside Wall Street forecasts.

"The US economy is really firing on all cylinders, creating more jobs than anticipated," said George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars. "The data might not be that welcome from markets; however the US Federal Reserve had already been apprehensive about cutting rates in the summer, and a stronger economy certainly does not make the case for monetary easing."

"Unless Fed officials come out in the next weeks, explicitly saying that the central bank will reduce interest rates in the summer, I would expect the first rate cut to be postponed into the latter part of the year," he added.

U.S. stocks extended earlier gains following the data release, with the S&P 500 rising 27 points, or 0.53%, in the opening hour of trading and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 90 points. The tech-focused Nasdaq gained 134 points, or 0.85%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields were marked 5  basis points higher at 4.365% while 2-year notes were pegged 6 basis points higher at 4.717%.

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Earlier this week, payroll-processing group ADP said private-sector hiring improved to around 184,000 last month, well ahead of Wall Street's 140,000 forecast. Wage gains for job switchers surged to 10%, nearly double the rate of those remaining in their current positions, the report showed.

Challenger Gray's benchmark report on corporate-job losses, meanwhile, showed just under 85,000 firings last month. The tally takes the first-quarter total to around 257,254, a 5% decline from the year-earlier level.

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