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US stocks ended a wobbly week and a volatile month on a high note as the latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge bolstered rate-cut hopes and kept the central bank on track for a policy pivot in September.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose about 0.6%, moving up from the record close notched on Thursday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped 1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added 1.1%.
At the end of August's last trading day, all three major indexes notched wins for the month, overcoming earlier losses.
Stocks took a mostly upbeat tone, with recession fears and the early-August rout in the rear-view mirror and a long-awaited start to Fed easing just ahead.
Wall Street welcomed the update on the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which showed prices increased in line with expectations in July. "Core" inflation — which strips out food and energy prices — rose 0.2% month-on-month, as expected. The annual rate came in at 2.6%, matching June's level and undershooting the 2.7% forecast.
PCE inflation levels are closely tracked by the Fed and so are watched closely in turn by investors to calibrate the size and pace of interest rate cuts this year. After Chair Jerome Powell last week made it clear a pivot can be expected in September, bets on a 0.5% cut have mounted amid signs of strength in the economy. The steady level of price pressures in July kept a 0.25% move lower in play.
Meanwhile, investors are moving on from the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings watch that held markets in thrall this week. Despite the late-stage turnaround, the Nasdaq Composite settled for a weekly loss after choppy trading from technology companies dragged down the average.
Stocks overcome a volatile August ahead of the Fed's policy pivot
US stocks ended a wobbly week and a volatile month on a high note as the latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge bolstered rate-cut hopes and kept the central bank on track for a change in policy for September.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose about 0.6%, moving up from the record close notched on Thursday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped 1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added 1.1%.
At the end of August's last trading day, all three major indexes notched wins for the month, overcoming earlier losses. And while the S&P and the Dow recorded wins for the week, the Nasdaq was dragged down by losses in tech.
Nvidia's stumble is hardly a reckoning of AI spending
Nvidia's (NVDA) boosters keep saying the AI revolution is in its early stages. But a reckoning of Big Tech’s AI spending is already brewing, highlighting a disconnect between the tech’s supposed world-conquering potential and the absence of meaningful returns on investment for companies not named Nvidia.
That snag was on full display during Nvidia’s earnings call. Several analysts asked CEO Jensen Huang about where all that AI money is going and how the company views questions about the industry’s massive capital expenditures and their more speculative returns.
For Nvidia, a few other hardware companies, and AI bulls, those returns are already here. But for everyone else in Big Tech and beyond, the results are harder to see.
Can the hype over AI simultaneously be at the end of its cycle and the beginning of another? It seems to depend on your timeline. And whether investors can accept retreating from exponential gains to merely linear forward progress.
The tech giants are still in investing mode. And for all the chatter of an unsustainable AI moment, of ballooning capex, and of uncertain revenue streams, Big Tech’s CEOs are fully onboard. That goes a long way in explaining Nvidia’s 122% revenue growth.
But it also underscores another mismatch between providing AI chips and promising revolutionary, unproven software that relies on those chips. Nvidia's unique growth story is reliant on the tech platforms' AI aspirations.
Demand for Nvidia’s hardware continues to soar as tech companies fuse their identities and their spending to AI. But at some point, investor gripes over tangible returns may lead to a scale-back that will hurt Nvidia. For now though, Big Tech CEOs have bet so big at the AI casino that it's hard to fathom what would convince them to pack up and stumble home. When you are high enough on the org chart, sunk costs lose meaning. Loss chasing can be mistaken for perseverance.
Now that all the major AI players have reported, does the tech world's uneven earnings season represent a buying opportunity or a turn to a more exacting appraisal of AI's true worth? Until the investments slow, it will be hard to know.
A bumpy is August poised to end with a win, but September could bring more volatility
After a massive sell-off earlier this month, the S&P 500 is on track to gain about 1.4% for the month of August. That puts the benchmark index in line for the fourth straight month of victories, overcoming shifting narratives on interest rate policy, geopolitical tensions, and the US presidential campaign.
The Dow 30 is also gunning to wrap August with a win. The index is on track to gain 1%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is the outlier, sliding roughly 0.3% as several tech industry names, including Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOG) are set to post monthly losses, dragging the average lower.
September could prove to be another volatile month.
"The last four Septembers have also been notably weak, with the index posting declines of 4.9%, 9.3%, 4.8%, and 3.9%," said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial.
"During the month, the index tends to trade sideways during the first half, with losses beginning to accumulate into month end," he said.
VP Harris says, as president, she won't ban fracking
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris wants to make it crystal clear: If she's elected president, she won't put a stop to fracking, the drilling technique she once opposed prior to becoming vice president. At the same time, she will be holding firm on making progress on the green energy front, reports Yahoo Finance's Ines Ferré.
"As vice president, I did not ban fracking. As president, I will not ban fracking," Harris told CNN during an interview on Thursday.
Her promise comes after her opponent, former President Donald Trump, has repeatedly criticized her during recent rallies in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania for changing her stance on fracking since 2019, when she said in a democratic debate, "There's no question I'm in favor of banning fracking."
Not only is Pennsylvania a crucial swing state, it's also the second-largest producer of natural gas, behind Texas, according to government data.
“Pennsylvania knows what happens when steel and coal went away; they’re not going to let natural gas go away,” Ed Hirs, senior fellow at the University of Houston, told Yahoo Finance on Friday.
Stocks trending in afternoon trading
Here are some of the stocks leading Yahoo Finance’s trending tickers page during afternoon trading on Friday:
Lululemon (LULU): The athletic apparel company shed 1% Friday after reporting a mixed second quarter, with revenue falling below estimates and and adjusted earnings of coming in above expectations. The company also slashed its full-year guidance. It now sees earnings of $13.95 to $14.15 per share. It had been $14.27 to $14.47 per share.
MongoDB (MDB): Shares of the software developer rose more than 15% after it topped second quarter earnings estimates for its fiscal 2025 on the top and bottom lines. The company also lifted its guidance.
Intel (INTC): Shares of the chipmaker gained 7% Friday afternoon following a report that the company is considering splitting off its foundry and other options as the rival to Nvidia tries to stem losses. The reported discussions follow a harsh earnings report from earlier this month that spooked investors. Overall, the stock is down over 50% so far this year.
Dell (DELL): Shares of the technology company rose 3% in afternoon trading on Friday after posting better-than-expected second quarter results and raising its full-year outlook. Dell also benefited from the development around AI, with increased demand for its servers.
Stocks mostly rise in afternoon trading
US stocks climbed during afternoon trading on Friday, although the momentum pulled back some from earlier in the day as the latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge bolstered rate-cut hopes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost 0.2%, moving down from the record close notched on Thursday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) ticked up 0.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) increased 0.3%.
A 'Goldilocks' PCE reading keeps Fed on track for September cut
A fresh reading on inflation Friday keeps the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates in September, reports Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger.
The annual change in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the so-called core Personal Consumption Expenditures index — clocked in better than expected at 2.6% for the month of July, unchanged from June. Economists had expected 2.7%.
The month-over-month change in the measure, which strips out the costs of food and energy, held steady from June at 0.2%.
"This is as Goldilocks as it gets for PCE," said Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group. "The consumer remains strong and disinflation is clear in the data."
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, said the new PCE print provides more proof to Fed officials who wanted to see additional confirmation of slowing inflation following hotter-than-expected readings in the first quarter.
It "should assuage concerns that the overall downward trajectory has stalled or inched higher," she said.
Fed Chair Jay Powell made clear last week that the central bank is poised to begin its rate cutting cycle, saying in a speech that "the time has come for policy to adjust."
Stocks trending in morning trading
Here are some of the stocks leading Yahoo Finance’s trending tickers page during morning trading on Friday:
Dell (DELL): Shares of the technology company rose in 2% in morning trading on Friday after posting better-than-expected second quarter results and raising its full-year outlook. Dell also benefited from the development around AI, with increased demand for its servers.
Alibaba (BABA): The Chinese e-commerce giant rose nearly 3% Friday at the conclusion of a three-year regulatory process. The update comes after the company was hit with a multibillion-dollar antitrust fine by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) in 2021 for monopolistic practices.
Intel (INTC): Shares of the chipmaker gained 7% Friday morning following a report that the company is considering splitting off its foundry and other options as the rival to Nvidia tries to stem losses. The reported discussions follow a harsh earnings report from earlier this month that spooked investors. Overall, the stock is down over 50% so far this year.
Ulta (ULTA): The beauty store chain sank nearly 3% after posting second quarter results that fell short of expectations and as executives cut the company's outlook for the year. The sagging results reflected increasing choosiness among consumers as other retailers have struggled this earnings season.
Fed's preferred inflation gauge shows prices increased as expected
The latest reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed prices increased at a pace in line with Wall Street's expectations in July, reports Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out the cost of food and energy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2 % from the prior month during July, in line with Wall Street's expectations for 0.2% and the 0.2% reading seen in June.
Over the prior year, prices rose 2.6% in July, matching June's annual increase and below analyst expectations for a 2.7% increase.
"No news is good news, said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. "The runway is all clear for the Fed to cut rates in September. The only question is if the cut will be 0.25 or 0.50."
The reading left expectations for the Fed's likely upcoming rate cut little changed. Market bets placed a roughly 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut, up from 66% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The report is the first look at inflation since Fed Chair Jerome Powell all but confirmed the Fed will cut rates in September. During a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo, he said the "time has come for policy to adjust." Powell added that his confidence had "grown" that inflation is heading back to the Fed's 2% goal.
Stocks climb as inflation reading shows further progress
US stocks climbed at the open on Friday, moving to end the week and the month on a high note as the latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge bolstered rate-cut hopes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.5%, holding around the record close notched on Thursday, its third this week. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) popped roughly 0.2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 0.8%.