ZoomerMedia's estimated fair value is CA$0.021 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
ZoomerMedia's CA$0.025 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of ZoomerMedia Limited (CVE:ZUM) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)
CA$2.24m
CA$1.72m
CA$1.45m
CA$1.30m
CA$1.21m
CA$1.17m
CA$1.14m
CA$1.13m
CA$1.13m
CA$1.14m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Est @ -34.21%
Est @ -23.33%
Est @ -15.70%
Est @ -10.37%
Est @ -6.63%
Est @ -4.02%
Est @ -2.19%
Est @ -0.91%
Est @ -0.01%
Est @ 0.62%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 10%
CA$2.0
CA$1.4
CA$1.1
CA$0.9
CA$0.7
CA$0.6
CA$0.6
CA$0.5
CA$0.5
CA$0.4
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$8.8m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CA$14m÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= CA$5.3m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CA$14m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$0.03, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
dcf
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at ZoomerMedia as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.787. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for ZoomerMedia
Strength
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine ZUM's earnings prospects.
Threat
Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For ZoomerMedia, we've put together three essential elements you should further research:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for ZoomerMedia (2 are significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSXV every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
