Magellan Financial Group (ASX:MFG) shareholders have endured a 72% loss from investing in the stock five years ago
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While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Magellan Financial Group Limited (ASX:MFG) share price has gained 18% in the last three months. But spare a thought for the long term holders, who have held the stock as it bled value over the last five years. In fact, the share price has tumbled down a mountain to land 80% lower after that period. While the recent increase might be a green shoot, we're certainly hesitant to rejoice. The real question is whether the business can leave its past behind and improve itself over the years ahead. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
Check out our latest analysis for Magellan Financial Group
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Looking back five years, both Magellan Financial Group's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 8.9% per year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 28% per year, over the period. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 7.45.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Magellan Financial Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Magellan Financial Group the TSR over the last 5 years was -72%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!