One of the biggest stories of last week was how Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TSE:MDP) shares plunged 24% in the week since its latest quarterly results, closing yesterday at CA$1.87. Revenues fell badly short of expectations, with revenue of US$26m missing analyst predictions by 20%. Unsurprisingly, the statutory profit the analysts had been forecasting evaporated, turning into a loss of US$0.02 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Medexus Pharmaceuticals

Taking into account the latest results, Medexus Pharmaceuticals' five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$114.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 61% to US$0.095 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$136.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.48 in 2025. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

The consensus price target fell 19% to CA$3.35, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Medexus Pharmaceuticals at CA$5.90 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$2.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.0% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 25% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Medexus Pharmaceuticals is expected to lag the wider industry.