This week marks the official kick-off of Q3 peak earnings season with 2,468 companies (from our global universe of 11,000) anticipated to release results. All eyes will be on big tech with five of the Magnificent 7 names slated to report - Alphabet on Tuesday, Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. Nvidia will report on November 20.
Tesla got the Magnificent 7 party started off when they reported better-than-expected results on the bottom-line on Wednesday, but just slightly missed revenue expectations.[1] That didn't seem to bother investors, however, who took the stock over 10% higher after the report, a move that lifted the markets into Thursday after three down days. Rather than the revenue miss, investors latched onto positives in the report which included a $739M automotive regulatory credit during the quarter, as well as CEO Elon Musk's best guess that vehicle growth could reach 20 - 30% next year.[2]
With nearly 40% of the S&P 500 reported thus far, the YoY growth rate stands at 3.6%, the fifth consecutive quarter of growth, yet the lowest growth rate in over a year.[3]
Outlier Earnings Dates This Week
Academic research shows that when a company confirms a quarterly earnings date that is later than when they have historically reported, it's typically a sign that the company will share bad news on their upcoming call, while moving a release date earlier suggests the opposite.[4]
This week we get results from a number of large companies on major indexes that have pushed their Q3 2024 earnings dates outside of their historical norms. Seventeen companies within the S&P 500 confirmed outlier earnings dates for this week, fourteen of which are later than usual and therefore have negative DateBreaks Factors*. Those names are Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Visa (NYSE:V), Fortive Corporation (FTV), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), Microsoft (MSFT), Xcel Energy (XEL), MasterCard (MA), CMS Energy Corp (CMS), Eastman Chemical (EMN), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Comcast Corp (CMCSA) T.Rowe Price (TROW) and Charter Communications (CHTR). The three names with positive DateBreaks Factors are D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI), GoDaddy (GDDY) and Gen Digital (GEN).
Visa
Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, October 29, AMC
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, October 22, AMC
DateBreaks Factor: -2*
Visa is set to report their FQ4 2024 results on Tuesday, October 29, a week later than expected. While they are still adhering to their Tuesday reporting trend, they have pushed their report into the 44th week of the year (WOY), after reporting in the 43rd WOY in 2023.
It's no secret that the US consumer has wavered in the last two years as rising inflation took its toll. In some quarters that has meant credit card providers are seeing less total payment volumes (TPV) and/or greater payment delinquencies. In the second quarter Visa both missed Wall Street's revenue estimate and recorded slowing payment volume.[5] Two weeks ago, a closely watched peer, American Express, reported results for Q3. Those results included light Q3 revenue, full-year 2024 guidance that was in the lower end of the previous range, and deceleration among most of the age cohorts tracked by the credit card provider.[6] Investors will be looking ahead to Visa's results for any clues on whether or not the US consumer continues to soften.
* Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor: statistical measurement of how an earnings date (confirmed or revised) compares to the reporting company's 5-year trend for the same quarter. Negative means the earnings date is confirmed to be later than historical average while Positive is earlier.
D.R. Horton
Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, October 29, BMO
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Tuesday, November 5, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: 3*
Homebuilder D.R. Horton is also set to report FQ4 2024 results on Tuesday, October 29, however for this name that is a week earlier than expected. This move pushes the report into the 44th week of the year when DHI typically reports for FQ4 in the 45th or even the 46th week of the year.
Part of D.R. Horton's move could have to do with the fact that they were slated to report on the same day as the US presidential election. Our data has shown many companies have changed their report dates to avoid releasing results that week, but the majority have pushed earnings calls into a later week. America's largest homebuilder reported stellar FQ3 results despite inflation and mortgage rates that remained inflated.[7] They continue to benefit from limited supply as demand for affordable housing remains elevated. Analysts believe a lower interest rate environment which we entered last month when the Fed delivered a jumbo 50bps rate cut will be favorable for homebuilders.[8]
On Deck This Week
The tech behemoths take center stage this week, just as many of their stock prices reach all-time highs. How they perform may decide how this earnings season is perceived and where the US markets head. According to FactSet, these seven names are expected to report aggregate EPS growth of 18.1% YoY for the third quarter.[9] Remove these seven companies from the S&P 500 and the blended growth rate which currently stands at 3.6% would collapse to 0.1%.[10]
Mega Tech Will Shape the Earnings Season and US Markets When They Report This Week
Source: Wall Street Horizon
Q3 Earnings Wave
This earnings season, the peak weeks will fall between October 28 - November 15, with each week expected to see over 2,000 reports. Currently, November 7 is predicted to be the most active day with 1,422 companies anticipated to report. Thus far, 73% of companies have confirmed their earnings date (out of our universe of 11,000+ global names). The remaining dates are estimated based on historical reporting data.
Mega Tech Will Shape the Earnings Season and US Markets When They Report This Week
4 Time Will Tell: Information in the Timing of Scheduled Earnings News, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Eric C. So, Travis L. Johnson, Dec, 2018, https://papers.ssrn.com
6 American Express Reports Third-Quarter Earnings Per Share of $3.49, and Raises Full-Year 2024 EPS Guidance, October 18, 2024, https://ir.americanexpress.com
7 D.R. HORTON, INC., AMERICA'S BUILDER, REPORTS FISCAL 2024 THIRD QUARTER EARNINGS AND DECLARES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND OF $0.30 PER SHARE, July 18, 2024, https://investor.drhorton.com
8 US homebuilder stocks surge on hopes for demand boost after Fed rate cuts, Reuters, By Pratyush Thakur, September 19, 2024, https://www.reuters.com
9 Are The Magnificent 7 Companies Top Contributors to Earnings Growth for the S&P 500 for Q3?, FactSet, John Butters, October 21, 2024, https://insight.factset.com
10 Are The Magnificent 7 Companies Top Contributors to Earnings Growth for the S&P 500 for Q3?, FactSet, John Butters, October 21, 2024, https://insight.factset.com
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