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The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed in the red Wednesday, giving back a small portion of its near-30% gains so far this year. And as we approach the end of the second quarter, 2023 is shaping up to be a year for the record books.

Double-digit gains alone would be something to tweet home about, given concerns over the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting hawkishness at the beginning of the year (concerns that persist, by the way).

But it's the way in which the market delivered these returns that yields an unexpected historical analysis — one that suggests the tech-heavy Nasdaq may add to its impressive six-month tally in the back half of this year.

The above chart plots the returns of the Nasdaq Composite for the first half of the year (purple) versus the second-half performance (orange). The first half of 2023 is posting the third-highest return after 1975 (45%) and 1983 (37%).

What immediately stands out are the big declines after each of the top two years (-11% and -13%, respectively). The fifth-best year (1986) also had a large decline of 14% in the second half after a 25% run in the first half.

Might a similar bearish fate await investors in the third and fourth quarters of this year?

Peering into the price action of those "big up, big down" years reveals a decidedly different picture than what has evolved this year.

In 1986, price largely ticked smoothly upwards over the first two quarters, closely hugging the 10-day moving average (a technical indicator used to smooth jagged price action). Might the run-up have been too perfect?

Climbing the wall of worry as in the chart above is usually fraught with increasing risk the longer price advances with nary a material pullback.

Back to the present, the price action this year has been a bit choppier, with price moving largely sideways to down from the February peak until the break to the upside in May.

If a one-sided market is prone to reversal. Perhaps a more balanced market that both waxes and wanes is the fuel that the bulls need.

Bespoke Investment Group published a similar finding Monday with their Chart of the Day. They found that if you add up the number of winning days over the first six months of the year, a higher winning percentage counterintuitively signals a lower likelihood of positive returns in the second half of the year.

Bespoke concludes, "Based on the Nasdaq’s prior history, the less routine positive days were during strong first halves, the more likely it was to continue rallying in the second half."

This jives with our general theory of markets that too much of a good thing doesn't last. At the very least, this year's impressive gains aren't necessarily the headwind that some claim.

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