Nelnet (NYSE:NNI) shareholders have earned a 13% CAGR over the last five years

In This Article:

When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. But Nelnet, Inc. (NYSE:NNI) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 72% over five years, which is below the market return. Zooming in, the stock is up a respectable 7.2% in the last year.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

See our latest analysis for Nelnet

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Nelnet actually saw its EPS drop 0.08% per year.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.

We doubt the modest 1.1% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. In contrast revenue growth of 7.0% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Nelnet is growing, a real positive. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Nelnet the TSR over the last 5 years was 82%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.