Inflation pressures eased in April, but the progress was likely not enough to push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates just yet.
"It's a step in the right direction," said Bank of America Securities US economist Stephen Juneau. But "is it enough for the Fed to get too excited about? Probably not yet."
In April, the Consumer Price Index on a "core" basis, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 3.6% year over year. That was in line with expectations, and it cooled from the 3.8% increase seen in March.
Monthly core price increases clocked in at 0.3%, in line with expectations and down from 0.4% in the prior three months.
Read more: Inflation slowed in April — here’s how that affects your wallet
The numbers are probably not enough to immediately alter the Fed's higher-for-longer stance, following hotter-than-expected inflation reports at the start of the year.
In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear Tuesday that he thinks the Fed will need more than a quarter's worth of data to really make a judgment on whether inflation is steadily falling toward 2%.
That implies it will take more than three inflation reports for the Fed to feel confident about lowering rates from a 23-year high, putting the odds of a first rate cut in September if the data supports such a move.
Following the CPI release Wednesday, markets were pricing in a roughly 53% chance the Fed begins to cut at its September meeting, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool. That's up from about a 45% chance the month prior.
Investors now anticipate roughly two 25 basis point cuts this year, down from the six cuts expected at the start of the year, according to updated Bloomberg data.
Powell said Tuesday that his confidence that inflation will keep cooling is not as high as it was at the start of the year and that the central bank will need to be patient before lowering interest rates.
“I think that it may be that that takes longer than expected to do its work and bring inflation down,” he said on a panel in Amsterdam.
Powell seemed to think that getting the last percent or so of inflation back down to 2% could take longer and potentially be more painful than last year’s steady drops month over month.
That's because he believes supply chain issues that were pushing up prices have largely been resolved, and now it’s about tempering consumer demand.
Other Fed officials have stressed being patient as well. On Monday, Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson said the Fed would need "additional evidence" that inflation is falling to the Fed's 2% target before cutting interest rates.
"Until we have that, I think it is appropriate to keep the policy rate in restrictive territory," Jefferson said during a question and answer session at the Cleveland Fed.
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