Old Dominion Freight Line saw continued demand weakness during the third quarter but signaled October could be the last of the big year-over-year declines for this cycle.

The less-than-truckload carrier reported $1.47 billion in revenue, a 3% y/y decline. Earnings per share of $1.43 were 1 cent ahead of the consensus estimate but 11 cents worse than the 2023 third quarter.

The company said y/y declines in operating metrics have accelerated so far in October. Revenue per day will likely be down 11.2% to 11.8% y/y for the full month. Tonnage per day is expected to be down 9.2% to 9.8% y/y, implying a 2% y/y decline in revenue per hundredweight, or yield. (Diesel prices are off 20% y/y, presenting a headwind to yields.)

The y/y comp for October will likely be the toughest for Old Dominion (NASDAQ: ODFL). Last October, a cyberattack at competitor Estes produced a short-lived volume uptick for the rest of the industry, which presents a headwind to this year’s comp.

“This feels like we’re finally getting to what we hope is a floor,” said Old Dominion CFO Adam Satterfield on a Wednesday call with analysts. “We’re encouraged about how things are trending. It’s good to see the sequential performance thus far in October.”

He said the sequential changes in October are getting closer to historical month-over-month change rates after two-and-a-half years of underperformance. Through the first three weeks of October, tonnage is off 3.5% sequentially versus the normal change rate of down 3.1%. He said this was the first time the company has started a quarter “relatively close” to normal seasonality.

Old Dominion has also seen a slight sequential increase in weight per shipment, which is often “a sign of hope with respect to the economy.”

“It feels like we’ve been running against the wind for a long time now, and we’re ready to see things start to turn around and give us a little bit of help from an economic standpoint,” Satterfield said.

Tonnage per day in the third quarter was down 4.8% y/y as daily shipments fell 3.4% and weight per shipment was off 1.4% to 1,476 pounds, near a historical low. The year-ago quarter was the first to benefit from Yellow Corp.’s (OTC: YELLQ) shutdown, making this year’s comps more formidable.

Across its book of business, Old Dominion continues to see weak demand from industrial-related customers (approximately 55% to 60% of revenue). However, retail-oriented customers and 3PLs are experiencing some growth.

Yield was up 1.5% y/y in the third quarter, 4.6% higher when excluding fuel surcharges. The yield increases are partly due to the lower shipment weights, but the company said it is continuing to capture increases on contractual bid renewals.