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One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. Just take a look at Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSBC), which is up 44%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 13% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 15%, including dividends.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
See our latest analysis for Old Second Bancorp
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Old Second Bancorp was able to grow its EPS at 13% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. Notably, the 13% average annual share price gain matches up nicely with the EPS growth rate. This observation indicates that the market's attitude to the business hasn't changed all that much. Quite to the contrary, the share price has arguably reflected the EPS growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Dive deeper into Old Second Bancorp's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Old Second Bancorp's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Old Second Bancorp's TSR for the last 3 years was 50%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Old Second Bancorp shareholders are up 15% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 8% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Old Second Bancorp has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.