It's shaping up to be a tough period for Origin Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:ORGN), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$7.0m and leading to a corresponding blowout in statutory losses. The loss per share was US$0.14, some 17% larger than the analyst forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimate to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Origin Materials

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the solitary analyst covering Origin Materials, is for revenues of US$31.2m in 2024. This implies an uneasy 8.3% reduction in Origin Materials' revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 423% to US$0.46 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$32.0m and losses of US$0.45 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on Origin Materials after the new consensus numbers; while the analyst trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a pronounced increase to per-share loss expectations.

The average price target lifted 122% to US$3.00, clearly signalling that the weaker revenue and EPS outlook are not expected to weigh on the stock over the longer term.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Origin Materials' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 16% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 129% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Origin Materials is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Origin Materials. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.