Last week, you might have seen that Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX:PLS) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.0% to AU$2.91 in the past week. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at AU$1.3b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Pilbara Minerals

Taking into account the latest results, the 18 analysts covering Pilbara Minerals provided consensus estimates of AU$1.15b revenue in 2025, which would reflect an uneasy 8.0% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 40% to AU$0.051 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$1.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.062 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of AU$3.28, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Pilbara Minerals' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Pilbara Minerals at AU$4.59 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$2.20. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.0% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 57% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.7% per year. It's pretty clear that Pilbara Minerals' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.