Prediction: These 2 Stocks Will Beat the S&P 500 Through 2030

In This Article:

Beating the S&P 500 over five years or more is notoriously tricky. Even highly trained hedge fund managers often struggle to do it. If you're hoping to pull it off, it might be worth considering companies with track records of above-average returns that still have the strengths that led to their past successes. These conditions are neither sufficient nor necessary to beat the market, but looking at these factors is a decent place to start.

In that spirit, let's discuss two companies that meet those criteria: HCA Healthcare (NYSE: HCA) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX). Here's why their stocks could deliver better returns than the S&P 500 through 2030.

1. HCA Healthcare

HCA Healthcare is a leading hospital chain in the U.S., with 186 hospitals and over 2,000 care centers of various types. The hospital-chain business is a hard industry to crack. The challenges include managing dozens of medical facilities -- an expensive proposition -- and building and maintaining relationships with physicians, patients, and third-party payers.

HCA Healthcare does these things as well as any of its competitors. In fact, the company's market share has generally increased over the years, indicating that it performs better than most of its peers. Its 24% market share in 2012 rose to 27% about a decade later. That included the early pandemic years when its business experienced severe disruptions. It also dealt with economic issues, including the need to rely on more expensive contract labor, which harmed its bottom line.

HCA Healthcare has navigated all that pretty well, though. Unsurprisingly, the company has delivered strong financial results along with its market-share gains:

HCA Revenue (Quarterly) Chart
HCA Revenue (Quarterly) Chart

What exactly fuels the company's success? Investing in its facilities, updating equipment, and offering cutting-edge services are all part of its strategy. HCA plans to do more of the same through 2030, while targeting a 29% share of the market by then. While the past is no guarantee of future success, HCA Healthcare has a strategy that has been proven to work -- and help it increase its position in a competitive and highly regulated industry.

In my view, the company is likely to perform through 2030 about as well as it has in the past decade.

2. Vertex Pharmaceuticals

Strong financial performances are important in the biotech industry, as in every other. However, drugmakers must also show solid clinical and regulatory progress to impress investors. We can expect Vertex Pharmaceuticals to excel in both categories through 2030.

The drugmaker's portfolio of medicines that treat cystic fibrosis (CF), a rare condition that affects internal organs, is still going strong. Vertex is the only game in town: It markets the only medicines that treat the underlying causes of CF.