Prediction: Aurora Cannabis Will Be Worth More Than Canopy Growth in 5 Years

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Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ: ACB) and Canopy Growth (NASDAQ: CGC) have been two of the more notable and recognizable cannabis companies within the industry during the past five years. But due to challenging market conditions, they have struggled, and their valuations have been falling, sharply.

Today, Aurora Cannabis has a market cap of around $380 million, while Canopy Growth is worth approximately $600 million. But five years from now, I expect that delta to shrink. Aurora Cannabis will not just catch up to Canopy Growth but will overtake it in valuation. Here's why that could happen.

Aurora Cannabis' business has been moving in the right direction

In recent years, Aurora Cannabis hasn't been a safe company to invest in. But to the credit of CEO Miguel Martin and the company's management team, the cannabis producer has become leaner, its margins have been improving, and it is now even generating positive free cash flow.

The company reported earnings earlier this month, and for the period ending June 30, its net revenue rose by 12% year over year to 83.4 million Canadian dollars ($61 million) Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) also rose by 87% to CA$4.9 million ($3.6 million), while free cash flow came in at a positive CA$6.5 million ($4.8 million). In the prior-year period, this figure was a negative CA$11.7 million (negative $8.6 million).

As Aurora Cannabis expands into more international markets and grows its operations, these numbers are likely to improve. The medical-marijuana segment has better margins than the consumer business, which Aurora has been pivoting away from in recent years, which is why it may not be surprising if the company's top and bottom lines continue to trend in the right direction in the future.

Aurora's improved financial performance is a key reason the stock has risen by more than 45% this year (Canopy Growth is up around 38%), and it could climb even higher over the next five years.

Standing pat and waiting for U.S. legalization may hurt Canopy Growth's valuation

While Aurora has been looking at international markets to expand into, Canopy Growth has remained razor focused on expansion into the U.S. cannabis market. In theory, it's a great opportunity because the U.S. market will be the largest pot market in the world. The only problem is that due to the federal ban on pot, Canopy Growth can't simply expand there.

Canopy Growth has been slimming down its operations to reduce cash burn and costs. But its sales have declined 15% as a result of that to CA$75.8 million ($55.5 million) for the period ending June 30. And despite its efforts, it's still struggling with profitability and cash flow. In its most recent quarterly report, its adjusted EBITDA was a negative CA$5.3 million (negative $3.9 million) versus a loss of CA$23 million ($16.6 million) in the prior-year period. While that has improved on a year-over-year basis, investors may have been expecting better results by now. Meanwhile, the company's free cash flow was a negative CA$55.7 million (negative $40.8 million) during the period.